Yamana: Thinking Trades in Gold

Investing is not only about finding the right stock or asset class, but also finding good entry points. This is especially true of a volatile asset such as gold. Knowing what timeframe you want to invest in is also critical, as gold often shakes out weak hands in the short-term right before huge upside moves.
For Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY), notice how MACD has been a good indicator of both uptrends and downtrends. Currently, MACD is approaching the signal line and is suggesting a potential trend change. Wait for confirmation of a cross between MACD and the signal line before entering this trade.

Ultimately, AUY will track the price of gold. Looking at the chart of gold, in addition to a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, a cup and handle pattern is forming. The convergence of these two indicators adds to the bullish case for gold. Furthermore, gold has found good support in the 30 day moving average. The short-term outlook for gold will change if this is breached.

As a slight bearish factor, declining open interest in gold implies we may be in for some whipshaw before gold really takes off. Also, stocks are showing weakness, which recently has precipitated a “safe haven” trade to the dollar. My firm belief is that money will start flowing to gold instead of the dollar in the next downturn, but only time will tell. Nonetheless, by keeping an eye on key indicators and waiting for confirmation to enter trades, you can be assured of being on the right side of the trade more times than not.
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