Understanding the Big Picture

You are all starting to see that it is the rare person who can block out all the noise and objectively put the pieces of the puzzle together. People are so damn biased they cannot see the truth.  When it comes to the markets, I love it that people are biased, because this is exactly why 90% of people lose money. But in terms of the country I live in, the general lack of courage to stand up to rampant corruption in the government is going to  affect my life in a negative way. So yea, I’m a little ticked off. It’s a fact that many of our government officials don’t pay income taxes. It’s a matter of the public record that the biggest supporters of “too big to fail” companies with dubious policies also coincidentally received the biggest political donations. You can’t make this stuff up. If you think this kind of corruption doesn’t get resolved through a crisis, then I really can’t help you. You will be blindsided by the coming crisis just like I’m sure you were blindsided in 2008.

The next unstoppable trend is the bankruptcy of state and local governments. There will likely be widespread protests in America, just like there are currently in Europe. Why are protests in Europe just starting to intensify if the debt crisis is over? Why is gold trading at $1310? Where are the jobs in a recession that supposedly ended 15 months ago? I mean seriously, do people believe the government anymore? 12 months ago you all may have thought I was a bit kooky and a tad bearish, but now you all see I was telling you the truth this entire time. This debt crisis is going to intensify and ill-conceived government responses will make things worse.

Structurally, American states and European Union countries aren’t all that different. They are both mandated to have balanced budgets; they both cannot print their own currency; and they both have bloated public sectors. This is a situation that can only be settled via currency devaluation. There is only so long you can tweak pension assumptions and play around with your accounting before the day of reckoning arrives. States are scrambling for cash and are resorting to sacrificing future productive capacity to hide leaks on their balance sheet.

 At the end of the day, the protests in America and Europe reflect a major collapse in public confidence. What else do you call it when the Tea Party movement becomes mainstream? 21 months ago people were hailing the “Messiah” Obama with tears in their eyes about the coming hope and change. Now, he’s a lame duck President. So yes, events can change quickly. Sentiment can change quickly. And what I am telling you is that you ain’t seen nothing yet because the world operates dynamically. Confidence will collapse very quickly- this is just the way history flows.

The saturation in the public sector to me is no different than the saturation in the financial sector. Half the people in finance should just get into farming or construction and do something productive. Essentially what you saw the past year was a government and FASB-driven rally in the financials. But gee, let’s think for a second. What do government-sponsored entities do when their sponsors go broke? Most of these financials (aka prop desks) cannot create adequate returns on capital without unregulated products that have left behind a swath of destruction. Derivatives work fine as a hedge and to mitigate risk. But the way derivatives are being used is as a gambling tool and a means of robbing others. This is not a business model that can outperform in a normal environment.

At the end of the day, our leaders will just press the reset button. They will restructure the dollar and explain it away with esoteric terminology so people don’t realize they just got robbed. Gold is the canary in the coal mine- it is telling you the future. There is some major volatility in store for us. What I have been warning you about is unfolding as we speak. The permabulls on our economy have suddenly disappeared, as have the gold permabears. They are not quite extinct yet, but eventually they will go the way of the dodo.

This is about as uncertain of a political, social, and economic environment we have seen in some time. I genuinely hope you are all positioned in gold and are ready to buy on the next bout of weakness. It may be arriving soon. Keep a steady head because the markets are going to go bonkers. It is almost time for the masses to be enlightened by events that were foreseeable for years. Believe me, there is a huge bull’s eye on $1600 gold for this next leg up. Eventually we are going much higher. Predictions of $2500 gold were once laughable; they will soon be a fact.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5411088 Steven Levinson


    A few questions.

    1. It’s obvious there’s going to be a lot more dollars around but why Gold rather than Food? Oil? Potash? Issuing debt and buying real estate? gold has no intrinsic value beside what we give it.

    2. How do you feel about VIXX call options? I think people are too focusing on the fact that there is so much liquidity that there cannot be a crash, but that is only one way at looking at it.

    3. Are you still feeling the $50 dollar pull back? from what I read is that everyone is expecting this pullback so, of course, it’s not happening. I think if gold passes through the next level of resistance, it might as well attach a rocket pack to its price.

    4. I am on the same side, 3000 is too conservative. Gold is going to hysteria levels. Its a Veblen good, the higher it goes, the more attention it gets and the more investor demand it creates, which in turn…

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hey Steven,

      1. Well most of those things are pretty good options. I’ll just say that gold is likely to outperform all of those assets with the exception of perhaps food.

      2. I expect a crash to around 900 on the S&P. Buying VIX options seems to be a decent play at these levels. I still expect to test 1200 before a crash though.

      3. I think a $50 dollar pullback or so is reasonable. There is actually a lot of bullishness in gold and bearishness on the dollar right now. I’m not selling any positions though since I know there is the very real potential of a runaway move. I am ready however to buy on weakness if/when it arrives.

      4. Right.

      • Lyleric

        Moses I love your website, keep telling it like it is! Regarding investing, I’ve done very well with junior PM miners the last month, but am concerned about a general market correction taking them down eg. 2008. Do you think it likely PM stocks will decouple from the Dow/S&P?

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Thanks Lyleric!

          Well PM stocks essentially decoupled from the general stock market from November 2008 to March 2009. I don’t think they will fall very far in a correction in the market.

  • Guest

    This is hands down the best free site out there. It easily rivals any pay site. We’re lucky to have this person publishing these insights. Thanks very much, Expected Returns.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses


  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5411088 Steven Levinson


    I am an avid reader as well. You have any recommendations that you believe have given you some good insights?


    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses


      Most of the books I have enjoyed you have probably read. I am, of course, a big fan of Jesse Livermore. I also really liked Nassim Taleb’s books (“Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan”). Buffett’s annual letters are gems. Charlie Munger is also a good read. I loved “The Road to Serfdom” by FA Hayek and “The Law” by Bastiat. Opened me up to a more common sense understanding of economics and the world. “Economics in One Lesson” by Henry Hazlitt was also a great book. Ron Paul’s writings also make sense on a number of levels.

      I love most psychology books. I think you can learn a lot about your natural human weaknesses, and this obviously helps when you are trying to approach markets objectively. Off the top of my head “Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)” was a pretty interesting book.

      There are probably a lot of books I’m forgetting, but if you like these books and want a more comprehensive list, just shoot me an email and I’ll give you a bigger one.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5411088 Steven Levinson

        I love how you can see the big picture. The “austerity” vs. “stimulus” debate in the industrialized world is perhaps the most absurd thing I have ever heard. Excuse me PIIGS but running budget deficits of “only” 10% of GDP when you already have debt-to-GDP ratios of more than 100% with a current account deficit AND billions is unfunded liabilities is absurd.

        For those that believe that the debt crisis has “passed”, there are sitll major problems with the American states, pensions, and unfunded liabilities. Politically, it’s virtual assurance that if there is not double-digit inflation we will need a debt crisis, whether real or imagined, in order for governments to straighten their budgets.

        At some level though, I believe that America’s creditors (primarily in Asia) understand what is going on with the money printing and are OK with it as long as they find someone to dump their dollars onto first and keep the can kicking down the road. How much coordination do you think there is between governments and big banks?

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Basically all that are you saying is correct.

          There definitely is between banks and governments. I believe the Fed engaged in currency swaps with European central banks, and this money obviously found its way into the banking system. In many countries, you can regard the banks as government-run institutions.

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