The Market Implications of More QE

QE

It has been an interesting couple of days. The move by the Fed to buy longer term bonds evidences the debt crisis that is unfolding as investors were shortening their maturities. No one in their right mind is buying 30 year government paper in the midst of a debt crisis; hence the Fed’s need to step in.

People are scratching their heads right now at the movement in stocks and gold. This latest decision by the Fed is good for stocks and gold in the long term; however, in the short term, anything can happen. Investors are still feeling out the implications of this latest Fed move, and I think to an extent the market was expecting more quantitative easing. In other words, buy the rumor, sell the news.

Gold was due for a correction, and quite possibly a severe one. Let’s see if gold can close above $1730. If it does, this could be a nice short-term buying opportunity. In any case, $1500-$1600 is a strong possibility.

Longer term, I’m not sure how the Fed is solving anything. This scheme does not address the problem of interest expenditures, which is the real issue. A lot of people will be pointing fingers at the Fed, but Congress needs to selectively cut spending. The entitlement system needs to be restructured as does the tax system. Without these changes, Fed schemes are useless.

As I’ve been saying, all these things are setups for higher gold prices. The debt crisis is just starting to pick up serious steam, and there are going to be major fireworks moving forward. I would buy all corrections in gold stocks, even knowing that a 25% correction or so is possible.

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  • Angie

    Hi Moses,

    Yah…interesting observation here.  It seems like market is breaking 10600 and heading into 9800 soon….or if it hold 10600 and bounce from here. Would you recommend buying gold over stocks at this level

    Angie

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hi Angie,

      After today’s collapse in gold, gold stocks are a clear buy. 

      Moses

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