The Disaster for Retirees

The years ahead are going to be very trying for our country in general and Baby Boomers in particular. I’ve often attempted to explain how this crisis is going to hit Baby Boomers especially hard. When the Fed sets monetary policy, they are putting speculators ahead of Boomers. This is a fact. A major crisis is forming because Boomers are feeling pressure on their investment portfolios at the same time that pensions are underfunded. Where is retirement money going to come from?

Let’s think briefly from the perspective of Boomers as it pertains to the 3 major asset classes of real estate, stocks, and bonds.

Real Estate

90% of people are totally off-base in the way they think about real estate. The American dream is to not only own a home, but perpetually move up to a bigger and bigger home as you age. Fine. But what Boomers are finding out is that there is no liquidity in the current real estate market. Furthermore, there is a good chance that capital gains taxes will rise as the budget crisis intensifies. Those who are holding out for real estate to recover are getting hit by huge costs of carry. Energy costs are rising fast even though there is no inflation according to the Fed. I’m afraid many Boomers are learning a very basic lesson in investing: residential real estate is a huge liability without cash flow.

Stocks

Stocks have recovered nicely from their March 2009 lows. Unfortunately, people panicked in 2009, which actually created net outflows from 401k plans. Even Boomers who didn’t panic are finding that stocks have gone nowhere for a decade. An inflation-induced rally in stocks appears to be in the cards, but I don’t think many Boomers will participate. Why? Many have been brainwashed into believing it is now time to move into bonds for “safe” yield.

Bonds

The worst is yet to come for bonds. Government bonds are near 3-decade highs even though we are running record deficits. Huh? Bonds aren’t even tracking inflation, and this is what Boomers are staking their retirements on? I’m truly baffled. It is a fact that bond defaults are the true capital destroyers. Judging by the way people are flocking into bonds now, this time should be no different.

Savings

Right when Boomers need yield the most, it is nowhere to be found. I’ve pointed out how the Fed is crushing Boomers with their interest rate policies. Well the mainstream financial media is finally catching on. An article in today’s Wall Street Journal describes the current plight of retirees. The article points out that investment income has fallen considerably from 2007, in large part because of the Fed’s interest rate policies.

The Fed lives in a world where lower interest rates are the solution to all our economic ills. There is no nuance in the way they think. Their interest rate policies show that they assume everyone is a speculator. Does the Fed not know that Baby Boomers are about to retire, and that by and large, retirees are not speculators? Does the Fed not know that lowering interest rates crushes the spending power of people who are least affected by a recession? I seriously wonder why people still trust the Fed after they were taken totally by surprise by the financial crisis of 2008.

In my experience, it is very difficult to talk to most older people because they assume they know more than younger people in all aspects of life. Tell them in 2007 that a real estate crash is coming and they scoffed at you because they made such gaudy gains in real estate. Tell them a bond default is coming, and they’ll ask you: “What makes you think you know more than the Fed?” Tell them that their pensions just won’t be there to fund their retirements, and this is about when their brains shut down. This has nothing to do with the logical weight of my arguments and everything to do with psychological barriers to believing facts. But I understand this. I truly sympathize with Boomers who assumed home prices would never fall and stocks would rise forever. But now is not the time to make big mistakes even bigger. Now is the time to face the facts.

Our government is running $1.5 trillion deficits. Pension obligations are coming due now. The Social Security trust fund is filled with Treasuries that the Fed just so happens to be buying directly. Taxes are set to rise across the board. It is truly time to get out of all government bonds. If I were about to retire, I would borrow money at a long-term fixed rate and hedge with moveable/liquid assets. This is just the prudent thing to do. I would not put one penny in a savings account yielding 0.24%. Even according to the government’s manipulated CPI, inflation is much higher than 0.24%. This is just common sense.

No matter how obvious the debt crisis is, I know many Boomers will not take the proper precautions. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Our leaders are still not taking the proper steps to mitigate this debt crisis. When Boomers really start to struggle, that’s when civil unrest should appear in America.

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  • PVZh

    “When Boomers really start to struggle, that’s when civil unrest should appear in America.”

    What do you mean? 1 million march of crippled elderly? Anybody scared of that?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      They are actually the most influential voting bloc, so yes, their opinion matters.

      • Tomcat

        Tomcat
        Yes PVCh there is someone scared of that. The Democrat Party. They are scared S***less.

  • Ronald D. Morrison

    I have heard somewhere, “nothing happens that is not planned”. If this is true, then what is happening to seniors and other sectors of our society is what is planned. The individuals on the Federal Reserve Board are not stupid. They know what is happening and they plan for it to continue to happen. Perhaps we should be asking who owns the Federal Reserve. With this answer, we might have a better understanding as to why what is happening is happening.

    Ronald D.Morrison

    757-681-6337

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I agree with you to an extent Ronald. Our leaders have surely known we have had a debt problem for some time now. I’m not sure that it is part of an insidious plan to bring Boomers down though; I think incompetence is a better description.

  • BabyB

    I work with people who are age 50-85 every day. So many of our senior citizens are struggling now – some are beyond struggling trying to live on $555 a month with 3 grandchildren in a one bedroom falling down mobile home. The difference is in ATTITUDE. The Baby Boomers have always had an attitude of CAN DO about them. If something is wrong they believe they can fix it. So yes, PVZh, if you check your history out a little bit you will see that the Baby Boomers have driven change in this country for decades – they are a huge voting block and they are not a shy group. I think they are more awake now to what is happening in our country and I think there will be a reckoning in 2012. It may be too late to make a lot of difference but I believe you will witness first hand what a powerful force they are.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      What you are saying is very true. Boomers have historically been an empowered group and I don’t see why they will stay silent as promises made to them are broken.

  • Anonymous

    MK-
    I am a boomer, age 54, and like all of us I am stunned by the events of the last few years. Reading your stuff is eye opening, and I notice the general theme about viewpoints/biases that hinder all of us. Trying to figure out whether I have a willful bias about investment positions with that in mind seems like a recipe for schizophrenia. We face dementia already (as boomers :) ha), is it possible to keep sane sorting through the whiplashes of the market? IMO these boomers run home to mama because its a pseudo security blanket, yet they retain some sanity. Its possible to win the battle but lose the war in all this – see Jesse Livermore who made a fortune on Wall Street but ultimately committed suicide.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hey Pirhana,
      It is definitely possible to win the battle and lose the war per se. I believe most Americans would sacrifice portfolio gains for the good of the country. However, as individuals, we must protect ourselves from the actions of our leaders. We all need to be honest and admit that these are not normal times.

  • W. S. Brown

    The Boomers have been slow to see the overall picture due probably to their optimism growing up. During my work days, I tried to tell many Boomers that real estate was not the investment they think it is. Like the article points out, it is illiquid to say the least and will never again produce the gains of the past. The main problem retired people face today is getting enough “cash flow” from their 401K’s to go along with their SS or company pension checks to live on. You cannot live on SS or a company pension plan alone (unless you are a fireman, policeman or teacher in California). Our so called “Leaders” should be setting the stage for a decent yield on long term investments by the retiring Boomers. So far, they have not come up with a plan to help people who are about to retire and can’t afford their current homes. They can’t sell them and they can’t pay the existing mortgage payment when they retire. So what do you think all these people are going to do? My guess is, that if they can’t sell them and get a smaller place they can afford, they will “walk” as it is their only option. I don’t understand why the polititions can’t see this and maybe extend the length of the existing mortgages to lower the payments for retirees so they can afford to stay in their houses in retirement. But I know that would be asking too much of those that are supposed to be “our LEADERS”.

    William

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      William,
      You bring up many good points. Boomers are, not surprisingly, an optimistic bunch; after all, they did witness the U.S. dominate the post-WWII world. That optimism has quickly turned to pessimism as many assumptions are being proven wrong.

      There are many creative solutions to this crisis that I’m afraid our leaders won’t enact. The reworking of mortgages is one solution. Our leaders must realize that Boomers are relying on fixed income investments, so printing endless amounts of money won’t be very constructive. Hopefully our leaders figure things out, but I have my doubts.

    • Tom Schors

      I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with your take on real estate, and that of all the other financial experts telling us that real estate is not a good investment today. I’ve been acquiring low-moderate value real estate for over 20 years knowing that it is illiquid and, supposedly, management intensive. I’ve used bank financing, but mostly owner/investor financing providing a good return (and today, a great return) of 6-8% for the investors. Over the years, most of my properties have been paid off by my tenants. Today, my rental properties provide me about three times what my social security pays. If investors will acquire just three (3) rental properties that will pay off in 10-15 years (using only rents), the income from those three properties will pay more than their social security which they have to work for 50 years to receive, if it is still around when they retire.

      • Brother Dave

        TS: Your post proves a planned, business-like approach can work for residential real estate investors. I see plenty of opportunities today. Rents in many areas are not going down much, if at all, and could be boosted with coming inflation. My wife’s nephew “retired” at 43 by selectively buying small moderate value rental apartment buildings he could improve cheaply (paint and landscaping). He now controls 400+ units at avg. mo. rents of $850! He just started selling his properties to harvest capital gains before taxes jump, then intends to buy again and repeat the process. Hitting 100 units was a milestone where he could leave his regular job. He’s not the norm, but shows you what is possible. My mom also did nicely buying a home cheaply, then sold it to two school teachers, holding their 15-year note on the property. She made more financing the deal than from the sale. It takes time, patience and the ability to be selective about what you do. Folks with 401(k)s and IRAs could do this using “self-directed IRAs” to fund acquisition (provided not your own home). I’m personally looking at selling my home and relocating to a less expensive area, turning one property into two or even three.

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          As long as you are focused on cash flow, real estate is not a terrible play right now. Scaling down to smaller homes and renting those homes out is a very prudent move in my opinion, and one that I believe will be replicated by Boomers in the years ahead. The key is to try to foresee which markets retirees will scale down to.

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        Tom I agree with you when it comes to real estate in certain markets. I have actually written recently a couple of time about why I am starting to get short-term bullish on real estate. Some of these price to rent, price to income, and other general affordability metrics are getting out of wack. Kudos to you for doing well for yourself in a down market.

  • Geezer

    The US is known for its freedoms; opportunity, liberty and religion. The generations before today took advantage of these coupled with individual responsibility. Those that waited for someone else to do it were left by the side of the road. Those that expected someone else to take responsibility for them were dissapointed. Suck it up and quit whining! Many have made serious mistakes in judgement by believing that someone else was going to take care of them. Suck it up, dust yourselves off ang get on with your lives! Life has never been easy, fair or more than one can handle. Reduce those fantastic expectations, live within your means and care for your families.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      People definitely need to be proactive and fend for themselves. But we also need strong leadership and sensible policies to help us on the path to recovery.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/SGJIZZ7Q65T4BAOW3S5NYP27MY Political Atheist

    So what are the “proper precautions”? You bring up points that I think most people know. Sure there’s the curmudgeons who don’t think you can teach them anything, but anyone who is even moderately aware knows the dire straits we are in. What are you doing with your money? I’m looking to buy rental properties, I’ve bought a small amount of precious metals, stocking up on food and sundries, planting my own garden, pulled back on funding my 401k and keeping it liquid. Writing a website that is generating a small amount of revenue. Anyone else have ideas?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I have a large portion of my wealth in precious metal-related shares. Long energy is a good bet as an inflation hedge. Real estate is also fine as long as the price to rent ratios make sense.

    • Anonymous

      PA-
      Sounds like you’re thinking out of the box. Kudos. Here’s at thought too: improving community ties. We have a few co-ops going where I live, including a community garden and some ‘plant exchanges’. A few of us share necessary household equipment (pressure washers, etc). This is truly counter-intuitive for American individuality type thinking. But why should each of us own something like a pressure washer that we use once every two months? Really what exists generally in neighborhoods today in America is pseudo-community, but that may be changing. There was a recent WSJ article talking about the new ‘pocket neighborhoods’ of 8 houses built around a common park/lawn setting.

  • Dcass44

    It has been my opinion for a long time that our generation (I’m 60+) believes the good times will continue to roll on. HA! We now find you are responsible not only for yourself but your parents and your children!
    You have believed the financial services “professionals” that base their “forecasts” on the past. Let’s do more analysis by Monte Carlo algorythms. By the way, who really thinks the future will be even close to the past 20 to 30 years when all of us were working, putting money into our 401K’s/IRA’s/403B’s and not paying attention to what was really going up? We deserve what we’ve baked!!!

    • Brother Dave

      I’ve likewise been amazed at events and admit to having the wind knocked out of my sails. But I realize there is good to be found here, if you get your head on straight and start looking (and waiting) for opportunities. So I ecide to be positive and find ways to prosper no matter the news or the market’s direction. I may feel sorry our children face mountains of public debt to repay, but at the same time they’ll have chances to buy/build assets at much lower prices than before. Inflation robs everyone (except the govt.) while deflation largely hurts those who made bad choices taking on too much debt. Given the choice, I’ll take deflation any day. I’ve been waiting patiently sometime now, keeping my powder dry (cash) and eager to buy some more when things worsen, which they surely will.

  • Joewilson1943

    Investments are still out there but you have to keep an eye on your money anymore and not put it on auto-pilot as in the past. I think a retiree should keep some of his money in the bank but invest in good dividend paying stocks, trusts, or MLPs.

  • Bobby Bickham

    I am a retiree and I agree with you 100%. I am investing in commodities to try and keep up with inflation, I do not trust helicopter Ben as far as I can throw him!

  • http://twittersuccessonline.com Dave

    A great reality check. I’m struggling with how I should tell my friends and family members to cash in their IRAs and buy PMs. I have a feeling that when hyperinflation hits (and we are close … average prices at the grocery store are up 35-45% over the past 1-2 years) it’s going to suck every last dollar out of every pension, retirement account and, even if it doesn’t, those same dollars in those accounts will be worth next to nothing. Better to plan ahead and be prepared then caught in a disaster.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Right. Fixed income is going to come under tremendous pressure with rising prices. Glad that you are preparing yourself.

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  • Funseeker961

    I liked this article, for those of us that read such articles know what is coming ahead.
    My problem, how do you get your baby boomer friends to wake up and smell the coffee?
    Most of the boomers are “social libs” and stupid when it comes to economicl services?
    They live with their collective heads in the sand and assume “everything will be ok”, Hell, I want to live better than OK in my retirement, and I want to live in freedom, not a “Police State” or in a restricted USA

  • HC

    Hi, can you explain what you mean by “If I were about to retire, I would borrow money at a long-term fixed rate and hedge with moveable/liquid assets”?  I don’t understand what “hedge with moveable/liquid assets” means. Can you break it down in simple words how this idea would look? Thanks, I may feel silly for asking but I’m glad to be learning.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Well I basically mean to hedge against inflation. So you can borrow long-term at 1% and buy assets that are poised to rise 10%.

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