The Debt Crisis: Stupidity Reigns Supreme

It brings me great joy that another record high in gold was greeted with yawns. Without popular media frenzy there is no bubble, period. It is just not time yet.

I have no doubt that gold is going to several thousand dollars an ounce. The wave of effective defaults is already in motion, first with quantitative easing in America and second with the haircuts for Greek bondholders. The bailouts will eventually end, but global financial manipulators must first learn some real-world economics. Gold continues to scream loud and clear that the approach our leaders are taking is dead wrong.

Anyway, I know I raised some eyebrows when I said that both raising taxes and promoting austerity were stupid. Well let me explain my point in as simple terms possible.

Imagine a young family that went heavily into debt, let’s say for medical reasons. Now it might be “fair” for this family to eat one meal a day, take on 3 jobs, and pull their children from school to help out at home, all so they can pay off their 25% APR credit cards, but it sure doesn’t help the situation. First of all, you are creating a lot of latent anger in the family, aka civil unrest. Second of all, you are forfeiting your children’s future by cutting education, all for the sake of paying your bills to a bank that gambles with derivatives to make profits, then gets bailed out by you when their bets fail. Are we really so rigid that we can’t figure out how to restructure debts? Is austerity really the smart thing to do here in the long run? A one year suspension of interest payments would go a long way in helping this family regain its footing. Instead of paying off interest, they would be paying off principal, which creates a positive feedback loop. Make no mistake about it, austerity will create a huge spike in unemployment and massive civil unrest.

And what about taxes? Well our genius leaders think raising taxes will solve everything, but I beg to differ; raising taxes is the stupidest thing you can do in an economic downturn. 3 out of 10 homeowners are underwater and somehow raising property taxes is supposed to help the situation? Raising property taxes guarantees that the marginal homebuyer who would have made their mortgage payments will now default, which depresses home values. As home values compress, more homeowners will go underwater and realize making mortgage payments is a losing proposition, depressing home prices even further. Sure you can raise taxes, but understand that the pie you are taxing will just get smaller and smaller.

Remember the homebuyer tax credit? Our leaders, with the media in tow, kept on reassuring us that the tax credit would resuscitate housing. Well I thought it wouldn’t, and I strongly felt the government would lose money in the long run because they were giving tax credits to people who would have bought homes anyway. People just pushed their purchases forward a little, which meant that future home sales were going to suffer. Our clueless leaders didn’t realize they were just pushing demand forward. Amazing.

We need to cut taxes. We need to stop paying the interest on our debt to foreigners until we get this situation under control. We need to selectively cut spending on things like wars that DRAIN our national wealth. Our leaders have the most generous pensions around, so they need to stop being hypocrites about cutting spending. This is not going to end well because our leaders have absolutely no common sense. This debt crisis is going to shake the world. Gold is going well beyond $2000 an ounce and we will all wonder aloud what happened to the gold permabears who were pounding their chest just months before.

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  • GoldCrusader

    By Jim Willie, Golden Jackass Gold and Currency Report, July 2011:

    $$$ PERMANENT QUANTITATIVE EASING (WITH QE3 & MORE) COULD MEAN
    $5000 GOLD AND $1000 SILVER, AN ACCURATE MARK FOR GOLD BUT
    EXAGGERATED A LITTLE FOR SILVER. TO BE SURE, SILVER GOES TO THE
    MOON, FROM A GREAT SHIFT IN MARKET DYNAMICS AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT.
    MANY SILVER BULLISH CONTRARY SIGNALS CORRECTLY FORETOLD OF THE MOVE
    SEEN OVER THE $40 LEVEL. $$$

    Peter Hambro is chairman of Britain’s biggest pure gold listing
    Petropavlovsk. He is excited naturally. He sees extraordinary
    leaps in the precious metals prices. He said, “It is very
    scary. The flight to gold is accelerating at a faster and faster
    speed. One of the big US banks sent me a message today to say
    that if QE3 actually happens, we could see gold at $5000 and
    silver at $1000.

    $$$ QUOTES FROM VARIOUS LEADERS IN THE GOLD COMMUNITY. EMBRY,
    SPROTT, ARMSTRONG, DAVIES, TURK, SINCLAIR, NORCINI, BOYD, HATHAWAY,
    SANTELLI, TAYLOR, AND DINES SHARE THEIR BULLISH THOUGHTS. THEIR
    OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN ACCURATE AND
    ON THE MARK. FOR CONTRAST, CONSIDER ROUBINI AS THE GROUP MORON WHO
    HAS BEEN WRONG LOUD AND OBNOXIOUS FOR TWO YEARS. $$$

    John Embry is the chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset
    Mgmt.

    The world is dealing with so much debt issuance, that it has
    produced debt indigestion. The debt saturation which will bring
    down the fiat currency system since it cannot be serviced. The
    solution they rely upon has been to print money in debt service.
    In the end, hyper-inflation will result.Austerity plans imposed on nations that struggle lead
    invariably to depression.The HUI major mining stock index should reach 840 at minimum.
    If gold hits $2000 (an easy forecast within 12 months), then HUI
    could double to hit 1200.He yells from the rooftops that the Western central banks do
    not possess the 30,000 tons of gold bullion. The bank ballast
    was sold into the market, long gone, not to be returned.He regards a rasied debt ceiling as no solution, simply a
    stayed execution for a short period. The great leveraged debt
    unwind is deeply entrenched since the failure of OTC derivatives
    in 2008. No meaningful intervention in this economic downward
    spiral will come since no reform or remedy was done surgically
    at the cause.

    Eric Sprott leads the fund he founded.

    The money printing (monetary expansion) is unbelievable, in
    his words. Suggested strategy is to continue purchasing precious
    metals in a dollar cost averaging scheme, which means to devote
    equal volumes of cash at regular price intervals.Doubters have littered the path all along since $400 gold
    through $800 gold. This is a secular bull market with much more
    to come. Wealth protection must be done in an asset free from
    debt.If QE3 is announced, gold & silver will go bonkers, in his
    words.Official solutions and programs to deal with the financial
    crisis have aided precious metals enormously, since they all
    involve debasing the USDollar currency. It is losing its
    purchasing power. The common theme is bank rescue and toxic bond
    redemption, which taints money.The risk of a string of bank failures in contagion is great.
    People are moving money out of banks and into Gold, in order to
    avoid having money trapped or lost.

    Martin Armstrong was falsely imprisoned for attempts to reveal
    profound systemic financial fraud in rigged markets by Wall
    Street. He was regularly beaten in prison. He was released this
    spring from prison after popular protest. He has been prescient in
    forecasting up & down cycles in the stock market, currency
    market, and precious metals market.

    Gold will continue to rise and make astronomical highs through
    year 2020.Eventually the USDollar as we
    know it will disappear as a currency.He forecasts a Gold high in August of $1700 to $1730 per
    ounce.He warns that if Gold hurtles to $2000 this summer, then to
    expect a long correction lasting until February 2012.He had consistently forewarned (for a year) that the June 2011
    timeframe would register a Gold low and a Silver low before a
    magnificent run in the next three or four years. He was correct,
    and his work gained more attention justifiably.

    Ben Davies has been extraordinary in his forecasts for most of
    the bull market in precious metals. In the early month of 2011, he
    forewarned of a rapid rise in the Silver price to $50 in April,
    followed by a sudden somewhat frightening correction to $35,
    followed by at least a six to eight week consolidation period,
    followed by a resumption in the powerful bull market through until
    the end of the year 2011.

    He has consistently cited a $1450 to $1475 support low for the
    Gold price in the spring and early summer months. He expects an
    early August upturn with gusto in a run to $2000 gold.He has consistently cited a $34 support low for the Silver
    price in the past few months.An important impetus behind the ongoing support for gold has
    been the new $1 trillion in global reserves. Export nations
    continue to gather and store new savings in the form of
    reserves. The Western nations continue to discharge capital.He is very unimpressed with mining stocks, pointing out the
    widening spread of share prices versus metal prices.He called the crude oil release from reserves in the US and EU
    a blatant attempt to provide economic relief. The motive to
    compensate for lost Libyan output was called rubbish, in his
    words. He expects the crude oil price to resume its rise in
    September.Look for a collective move gradually toward debt monetization
    (QE) in both the United States and European Union.

    James Turk is founder of GoldMoney, a global investment warehouse
    for personal wealth preservation in vaulted holdings. It has vault
    services in London, Zurich, and Hong Kong, metal purchase
    alternatives in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. It has
    almost a dozen major currencies as options for fund movement. He
    has a great expertise in dissecting the prospectus and legal
    compliance of various exchange traded funds. He identifies the GLD
    and SLV funds as tremendous frauds perpetrated on the ignorant
    investment community.

    With the USGovt parties in total deadlock and seeming
    disarray, expect more QE as the patch job to keep the system
    running. But its abuse will destroy the USDollar and produce a
    lot more price inflation.This summer that could surprise people. It is setting up like
    the summer of 1982, when gold soared during the Mexican debt
    default.Gold could hit $2000 very quickly, and Silver hit $50 very
    quickly.The London Trader deep throat warns that tremendous price
    moves up are likely after $1600 gold and $40 silver from short
    covering by speculators.Exiting the USDollar, exiting the
    Euro, exiting the British pound, investors are pushing Gold to
    record highs against all three of those currencies.Price deflation is apparent when prices are measured in terms
    of Gold. But price inflation is evident when prices are measured
    in terms of USDollars.As we go through this financial bust, people should avoid
    financial assets and focus on tangibles. That will ensure
    survival and the best preservation of wealth possible.

    Jim Sinclair is the charismatic independent and benevolent gold
    counselor. He is also the CEO of Tan Range, a gold miner with
    African properties. Dan Norcini is his sidekick, a great technical
    analyst with deep insight on the shorter term and mid-term price
    movements.

    Gold at $1764 is an important critical point, just like gold
    was at $524 several years ago. After a move above $524, the gold
    market went into a runaway back then. It is the exact same setup
    here. But a price over $1764 should bring in some significant
    supply. He expects a move above $1764 to generate widespread
    forecasts for a gold price multiples higher, like several
    $thousand per ounce. Therefore, the $1764 level will be defended
    vigorously.The political platforms that haggle over the debt crisis could
    serve as a catalyst for Gold rising above the important $1764
    level. Explosive volatile price moves will follow after the
    $1800 level, with moves of $100 or more on a daily basis.Norcini believes the strength of Gold in the summer months is
    very significant, usually a weak period. All-time highs in three
    major currencies have just been registered. Gold is acting as a
    currency of last resort, a reserve asset, but not at all as a
    commodity. Confidence in the monetary authorities of these
    Western nations is being lost rapidly. The USFed is trying to
    back away from QE3, but the debt supply and absent auction bids
    by foreigners means they cannot walk away.

    Sean Boyd is the CEO of Agnico Eagle, a mid-sized excellent and
    highly profitable mining company. The firm has an $11 billion
    market cap.

    He corrected forecasted a $1600 Gold price and a $50 Silver
    price earlier this year.The slow summer month pattern will not apply this year, since
    the market is global, driven increasingly by Far East demand in
    Asia.Great resilience has been seen. When precious metals prices
    fall, they recover quickly from constant buying pressure.Upon temporary solution to the USGovt debt challenge, expect
    some weakness in the gold price but it will be brief.Central banks are no longer supplying gold to the market. They
    are actually buying gold, a great pattern reversal.Based upon solid fundamentals and increasing demand, prices
    could rise next year by 25% to 30% at least. Product offerings
    are broadening, encouraging greater demand.In the 12 to 18 month timeframe, prices will be in the $2200
    to $2400 range for Gold and the $60 to $75 range for Silver.The official government and monetary policy response will be
    to continue to supply liquidity to the markets, in a continual
    currency debasement process. It is an Inflate or Die situation,
    a perfect situation for the precious metals bull market.Mining stocks could benefit from new rounds of merger deals, and from hikes to stock dividends.
    That would demonstrate a confidence in their
    own businesses, aided considerably by a tremendous cash
    flow being generated.

    John Hathaway is a gold community statesman and executive of the
    Tocqueville Gold Fund, a highly successful pillar in the managed
    mining stock arena.

    Some money going into gold is from financial entities nervous
    about both Europe and the possibility of a US default. Our fund is very much positioned for further advances in the
    gold price and more importantly further advances in gold mining
    stocks. Earnings will be sensational.A big stall in the USEconomy would mean poor corporate
    earnings, which will be compared against excellent mining firm
    earnings in a favorable contrast.Any great stumble in WashingonDC on the debt issue and budget
    challenge will propel the Gold price to $2000 quickly. But upon
    any resolution, even if temporary, the price will be unstable.Money is moving into Gold since rates of interest have
    remained negative for three years.Silver will follow the Gold lead in price. The Silver price
    must work off the emotional excess that it collected on the way
    to $50 earlier this spring.

    Rich Santelli is the irrepressible figure on CNBC from the
    Chicago pits at the MERC. He is highly outspoken and critical of
    every chamber of the United States leadership.

    He foresees a political and financial train wreck, as the debt
    and budget battle continues with very little willingness to
    compromise shown. All political parties have disappointed. The
    practical reality is that cuts have come to mean reductions in
    increases to the budget, in blatant baseline games. The financial markets are pricing in a compromise, but not
    necessarily one that has the right substance. The debt rating
    agencies will vote on the substance part.He regards steadfastly that the rising Gold price was a thumbs
    down vote of confidence against the USFed as a central bank with
    all its monetary policies. A $1600 Gold price is a grand insult to central bankers
    because the effect on fiat currencies of the world for their
    purchasing power is not tolerable to smart investors.

    John Taylor is the author of the Taylor Rule that clarified the
    paradoxical relationship between the short-term USTreasury yield
    and the Gold price. He is a former economic analyst for the USFed.
    His negative view toward Gold after the next runup indicates his
    blind spots. He regards Gold as a commodity. A repeat of 2008 is
    not going to happen this time, since the entire world has had over
    two years to prepare for this well anticipated collapse.

    He forecasts that Gold will extend its rally to $1900 by
    October, to be accompanied by a rally in the Australian and
    Canadian Dollars as the European debt crisis eases. He anticipates a plunge afterwards in the Gold price to $1100
    following liquidations, as a powerful global economic recession
    grips the world, far worse than the 2008 version.He expects the Euro currency to drop to 115, and might hit
    parity in 2012.

    James Dines is a crazy man with a very good track record. He has
    been removed from the conference circuit as a result of his
    antics, like appearing with sexy women on each arm from the
    modeling agency he acquired. His insistence of first class air
    freight for his luscious props by the conference managers earned
    him an exit. Yet his views are highly perceptive, having correctly
    exploited the internet craze in the 1990 decade. He was late to
    the gold game.

    The central investing fact in the world today is the coming
    end of the age of debt. The US government is borrows 40 cents
    out of every $1 in its expenditures. The USGovt has responded to
    debt finance challenges by conducting an unlimited paper
    printing mania.The whole world is on the verge of a final scramble to lock up
    hard assets as part of a flight out of paper money. The
    capitalism system is being transfigured into a monopoly game,
    out of paper and into tangible assets.It is incorrect to say there is no risk of inflation from
    printing of money in great volume. Rather that is the definition
    of inflation. So prices will go up. The tragedy is that QE1 and
    QE2 were failures. The leaders do not realize that Keynesianism
    does not work any longer, and probably never did. More debt
    increase cannot be used to pay off unmanageable debts. More
    money cannot be printed in order to cure all of the money
    already printed. All this printed money is flooding the world
    and wreaking havoc everywhere. The price of silver is going far higher than anybody realizes.
    It is going far higher than $50. It is going to test the $100 an
    ounce level, and beyond that somewhere between $300 and $500 an
    ounce.He gave warning. If people do not own gold, they will rue the
    day they decided not to buy it.

    Nouriel Roubini sold out to Wall Street, and compromised his
    excellent economic analysis produced in 2003 through 2006. His
    clientele probably dictated the tainted perspective. He is a New
    York University professor of Economics and an embarrassment to his
    profession. He has turned into a dunce, a fool, a lapdog. He is a
    resident counselor among the Deflationist Knuckleheads. He is a
    tool to the establishment and a broken voice against the Gold
    community. He has embarrassed himself as stupid on Gold, as his
    lousy track record testifies, and his incorrect analysis has
    proved amply.

    He denigrated gold in December 2009, when the price was $1125.
    He mocked those who said gold was going to $1500 and later to
    $2000, claiming they were speaking nonsense. Instead, he spoke
    nonsense.He has consistently believed that the Gold price would stay
    down from deflation forces. He has been consistently wrong. He
    does not understand the monetary effect on gold.He has consistently believed that gold bulls had it all wrong
    expecting a global financial crisis. Instead, Roubini has been
    wrong all along as the crisis mushrooms to touch all bond
    markets and all nations.He has a stupid perspective toward Gold, believing its price
    can rise only from two factors, price inflation and systemic
    financial crisis. He dismisses the price inflation threat,
    relying on the ignorant plank of excess capacity in glut with
    weak final demand, along with slack in the labor market. He did
    not foresee the global financial crisis.He is ignorant of monetary inflation effects on anything and
    everything, like most practicing mainstream economists.Last, least, and lunatic, Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman
    calls the gold rush a total marketing scam. We call the Nobel
    parade of prizes purchased by the Syndicate an intellectual
    scam, which includes Obama and his peace prize during a
    comprehensive narcotics war.
     

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