Stocks on a Roll, Surprised?
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Don’t look now, but stocks are in the midst of their biggest one-month gain since 1987. I’ve always said that the moves in markets won’t make sense logically. Throughout this panic about the debt crisis and Europe, I’ve consistently said to buy the dips in stocks. I am the biggest bear out there, but I understand that economic conditions aren’t the only driver of asset prices. Where is capital flowing? That is the question to answer.
Deflationists have been in hiding for years now. The debt crisis in Europe is turning their theories upside down since inflation is rising there. Unemployment has been at 30 year highs for about 3 years, yet there is no deflation. It’s so simple but people miss the point: if the government is willing and able to drop money out of helicopters, they can counteract deflationary pressures. The government can literally create money at the push of a button; why anyone is scared of deflation is beyond me.
The only asset class that was legitimately in deflation was real estate, but even real estate is bottoming. Come to grips with the fact that stocks will rise, and yes, even real estate will rise in this next cycle. Unemployment will rise too, but since it will be concentrated in the public sector, our overall national productivity will improve.
To succeed in investing, you must embrace uncertainty and paradox. Companies continue to surpass earnings estimates, and this is due in part to increased productivity. Sure large swaths of Americans are unemployed, but this always happens when our economy shifts. In the short run there is pain, in the long run we are better off.
I can’t put up charts right now for some reason, but generally the outlook on stocks is bullish. There was a temporary battle at the 75-day moving average, which I told you was a critical level. We busted right through and we just breached the 200-day. My outlook for stocks is similar to my outlook in gold: I think there will be a rally into the end of the year. Nonetheless, I will be lightening up here and there to hedge my position.
