Rising Volatility Ahead

I think we’re entering a period where it will be very hard to make a return. This is not necessarily because asset prices won’t go up, because they will. It’s just that volatility is going to be substantial as the big money unloads their inventory of government bonds. Just as in the recent spike rally in silver, a lot of people will find themselves buying when they should be selling, and selling when they should be buying.

I am fascinated by bubbles because it so aptly demonstrates human nature. At bubble tops, every single person who has ever considered buying an asset finally buys. From my own personal experience, I know many people who have been on the brink of buying gold and silver for about 3 years. They have been watching the bull market in amazement while kicking themselves for not buying.  While they haven’t been able to  pull the trigger, I am very confident that they will eventually buy- at the top. I’ll do my duty and warn them that they are probably buying near the top, but I have to be realistic here. At the bubble top, people will be hysterical.

I am probably more interested in bottoms, because as an investor, I prefer to be long. Bottoms usually come when the masses proclaim the “end” for a particular asset class. In 1982, there was the famous Businessweek article “The Death of Equities”. Of course equities in America promptly went on a spectacular 2 decade run. Then there was Gordon Brown’s sale of 60% of the UK’s reserves of gold from 1999 to 2002. Apparently the logic behind the sale was to reduce portfolio risk. Interestingly, gold has gone up more than 500% since then. If that’s “portfolio risk”, please sign me up.

So basically at tops and bottoms, the majority of people will get things wrong. In the next cycle, I think we’re going to see a lot of tops and bottoms. There will be the top in government bonds, gold, silver, oil, and commodities. There will be a bottom in real estate and countries like Japan. China will probably experience huge swings as well. What I always focus on is capturing about 60% of a move, that’s it. Trying to capture the last 10% of a move is usually what creates big losses.

There are going to be some spectacular moves in assets and I am positioning myself to profit. The key is to be disciplined. For now, I am trying to figure out when the short-term bottom in gold and silver will be. The ensuing rally from a short-term bottom should be quite spectacular, especially since global debt concerns will reappear. Municipalities are still a ticking time bomb, and the fact that Meredith Whitney is now being ignored is a good sign that the blow up will come soon.


Enjoy this Post? Subscribe to Expected Returns to get FREE updates.

Share this article
  • Rdisraelbob

     Do you think we are close to a bottom in gold and silver .Silver as we know has dropped from $50 down to around $35 as of today.Gold has also come down from a its high to $1495 or so.Both now seem to be trading in a range with not much happening.The demand for both metals remains extremely high and supply is very low.At least from a fundamental view nothing has changed.The economy is tanking as evidenced  the last few days in housing, Philly Fed,April leading indicators etc.If you listen to the fairy tales from Wall Street/Obama you would think that the economy has recovered and happy days are here again.Also the dead cat bounce on the dollar seems to be fading  and headed lower.
    Lets face it if it wasn’t the massive manipulation from the Fed/cartel both metals would be at all time highs.So one must focus on the fundamentals of the metals
    What are your criteria that you use to determine if a bottom is in place for gold/silver ?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I think we’re getting near, meaning a couple of weeks to a month away. Usually off of a rally, especially a spike rally, I like to see a steady period of consolidation. During this time, the 200-day “catches” up to price, and we’re usually ready for the next leg of the rally. While we may be near the lows, the important thing to realize is that these prices can stay depressed for a long time.

  • Dan

    Do you think the US residential real estate market is going to go up, down, or remain stagnant over the next 3-5 years?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      In about half the markets, up.  

  • Peter Pan

    the important thing to realize is that these prices can stay depressed for a long time.
    How correct that is.  I bought gold in the 80′s, been waiting for 20 years to turn a profit.

  • Brett D

    I agree I am also expecting more volatility ahead.  There just doesn’t seem to be enough fear in the markets (http://brettsstockmarketpulse.blogspot.com)

  • Aamarnick

    You are cuute, can not print your chart— do not deal with cute people, keep your chart and
    I will elimate your web site. We do not need people like you.  You should do stock market, they
    do things like that, not haqrd money people.   

  • http://www.siomunzus74.com Andrew A. Sailer

    I simply want to mention I am new to blogging and site-building and definitely loved this web blog. More than likely I’m going to bookmark your site . You really come with awesome posts. Cheers for sharing your website page.

  • http://www.elokings.net/ viagra

    34701 219197This design is spectacular! You obviously know how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Wonderful job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool! 64640

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Lenita Stumph

    this site is cool!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://www.cumshotsurprisetgp.com click to find out more

    The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

  • http://www.zugs-teen-xtacy.com more bonuses

    The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

  • http://pornarmy.net/51/morena-tetona-con-ganas-de-sexo-por-cam/ good info

    Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

  • http://testingbaret.com/weight-loss-guides-in-your-case-and-to-create-a-wholesome-overall-body/ teds woodworking reviews

    I have a Joomla website and already set up a Google Analytics account, now how do I add the code to my website so that it will keep track of visitors etc to every page? Thanks!.

  • http://thegreatamericanhousingfiasco.com/4181/investing-in-stocks-long-expression-or-brief-what-operates-best/ venus factor reviews

    No matter what I do with my Joomla homepage, I can’t take the giant Joomla banner off of the top of the screen and replace it with my own. Does anybody know how to do this?.

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Dee Wadleigh

    this site is cool!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://www.startupchucktown.com/forum/index.php/26358-penny-stock-egghead-program-reviews penny stock egghead review

    They are noteworthy for the possibly of the making of a book..

  • http://www.stp.gov.py/?mid=c_001&document_srl=2330073 penny stock egghead

    How do you protect articles put on a website against copyright infringement?

  • http://www.plumppornstars.com/6/rumana-madura-le-encanta-beber-semen/ follow this post

    Aw, this was an extremely nice post. Spending some time and actual effort to generate a great article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a whole lot and never manage to get anything done.

  • Pingback: Soulful Deep

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Dee Wadleigh

    this site is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Arlinda Beger

    this site is coooooooooooooooooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • Pingback: The 21 Day Fix review

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Dee Wadleigh

    this site is cooooooaaaoooooooooooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://tresym3dia.net/ sex

    I find myself this is certainly one of many much substantial data for me. And i’m glad researching your own post. However will remarks in few basic items, The website design is great, the actual content is actually excellent : Deborah. Excellent task, regards

  • http://tiny.cc/sugaringzuerich Waxing Zürich

    Did not see anything to tell the best way to stay away from skin tags, and so on. Here is how. Coat skin tags, and so on. with oil as well as the wax mixture won’t stick with that spot. Use just sufficient. To not little and never to significantly.

  • http://abrevia.retialis.net/homestdtest60054 home std test

    Thursday, May 31, 2012The asteroid, Chiron has moved into an opportunistic sort of angle with Pluto. If you have particular goals, you will discover support even if you have to be a team player, and not the star.

  • http://www.feelcolors.net/userinfo.php?uid=57691 Marry Luangxay

    I have learn several just right stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how a lot attempt you put to make one of these magnificent informative website.

  • http://www.tuxmachines.org/node/66712 Tad Rachi

    Gaming desktops are not as problematic as you may assume, and earning your private gaming personal pc is not as tough as a lot of folks would make you imagine. Given which you by now have a precise software in thoughts when setting up your individual gaming device, you will find truly only three most important elements you need to have to have to be concerned about, and almost everything else is genuinely secondary: the processor, movie card, and RAM.

  • http://ow.ly/yav1q Waxing Zürich

    Tea tree oil genuinely helps me with breakouts immediately after I wax. Just apply on skin proper following you wax. Also, avoid scorching water to your place for 24 hours.

  • http://www.escortamsterdamladies.nl/ escort service prostituion whore cunt anal sec ass fucking dog shit eating piss drinking eat scat brown shower satan worship homo gay fagot queer dick cock pussy cunt child porn sex childporn nude pictures Google owners are homoseual ass fuck anal sex dri

    877983 728292Hello. fantastic job. I did not expect this. This is a fantastic story. Thanks!

  • http://led.lamp.capital/ LED Lamp

    Nice post. I was watching continuously this site and I’m impressed! Extremely useful info especially the last part I care for such info much. I was looking for this particular information for a long time. Thankyou and best of luck.

  • http://sitesvia.com/overthecounterstdtest45662 over the counter std test

    The issues with your house require to be solved. In the natal horoscope, the planets are frozen in their position at that initial moment. This deck stays popular in the English-talking countries even today.

  • https://github.com/bondrafal auta na akumulator

     It is today ‘s concept . Days covers his person coverage over again with greater intensity risky forms of investment than all the money in fact to independence. Department transaction advisory TPA Horwath Horodko that poverty is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of public finances of Italy , along the word did not occur to the current architecture of financial education is assured

  • http://u.elisya.org/stdtestingathome99902 home std test

    If you need a studying you e-mail your reader with your questions and they reply with your answers. Sometimes, you would have the suggestions when you get the psychic help. In the Waite deck, the Emperor appears stern and dark.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGhkpBgGeTc how to make music

    Sites of interest we’ve a link to

  • http://getallporn.com/6/follando-a-cuatro-patas-a-una-rubia-caliente/ check link

    Good day! I just would like to give you a big thumbs up for your great info you’ve got here on this post. I am returning to your web site for more soon.

  • Pingback: FFL Transfer

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH5koAPe2SI funny commercials 2014

    that is the finish of this article. Right here you will obtain some web pages that we feel you

  • http://arthritisreduction.com/node/327615 Josue Mcquiddy

    Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the internet the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I undoubtedly get annoyed although people consider worries that they just don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , individuals could take a signal. Will probably be back to get a lot more. Thanks

  • http://warszawianin.net/annoucements/show/11847 gotowe spółki warszawa

    I am not assured where you’re getting your information, excluding abundant subject. I wants to spend a quantity of time erudition much extra or thoughtful additional. Merit for vast in order I was looking representing this information for my mission.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JBc001nXY funny painful fails

    we prefer to honor lots of other world-wide-web web-sites on the internet, even when they aren

  • Pingback: iherb coupon

  • Pingback: iherb coupon code

  • Pingback: iherb coupon

  • http://www.voiceblog.jp/snajin/2049171.html sunglasses ray ban sale

    Gold diamond jewelry epitomizes time honored efficiency alone, speculate this setting up for the purpose of gem stones as well as mixed with additional gold and silver, the visual benefit the item adds towards the person wearing them is undoubtedly inestimable. Organic metallic of it’s own sizing delicate plus will not be simple for jewellery in addition to other creative objects. Tiffany Sterling silver is created whenever some other steel, like birdwatcher, is without a doubt tiffany bracelet put into any sterling silver rebuild healthy and difficult. And so absolutely no quite a bit less robust while stainless,silver plate expensive jewelry is undoubtedly yet particularly heavy duty and also long-lasting. This is the reason a wide array of jewelry, jewelry, bracelet, engraved cufflinks, utility belt buckles, overall body necklaces and even more aremade out of sterling silver.

  • http://indirimkuponun.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/indirim-kuponu-faydalari/ kodu

    Wow, can i share it on social media ?

  • http://www.gettinghitchedphotography.com Click For INFO

    tiffany jewellery for cheapfeatures a lot of necklaces in your marriage ceremony; marriage sterling silver necklaces, bracelet, groups etcetera. Bridesmaid costume outfit bracelets is without a doubt crafts in the variety of items and colouring combination; fantastic plated or silver antique plated by means of treasures and additionally flagstones,discount tiffany and co jewelry,in several color choice combination that will bringing a cheerful elegance to your account.

  • http://LesbianCams.org/ lesbian webcam

    You will discover a couple of intriguing factors with time in this posting but I do not know if I see these folks center to heart. There exists some validity but I’m going to take hold opinion till I examine into it further. Good write-up , thanks and we want a lot more! Integrated with FeedBurner at the same time

  • http://www.connectdirector.com/ online portal

    My compliments, useful post and an excellent site. Also your post has inspired me to start writing on products comparable to what you are carrying out. We are producing a premium on-line portal a specially-developed web site that brings specifics with each other from diverse sources in an uniform way. The Connectdirector Online Portal – advertising networks & match making group portal is professional networking on the Connectdirector “all in a single” premium on the internet portal supplying enterprise networking & social networking, contacts, matching, on the internet content, (internet) advertising & (enterprise aid) solutions. An unique multi-language net portal thought with a international exposure and a neighborhood focus on each rich larger high high quality on the world wide web content material and dynamic database generated listings for matching private interest, company interests and social interests and desires. We at Connectdirector advertising networks and neighborhood portal are an match producing authority in guiding and reducing barriers by direct linking enterprise and social interests and wants interests on the principles of joint outcome, integrity, compliance and excellence. Summarized Connectdirector is Networking, Contacts, Matching, Content material, Advertising & Options.If you did not go to our site but and/or you are not a member, then please sign up as we truly want to know your thoughts so we can improve our on-line portal. On our web site you can commence easy to develop your network contacts!

  • Pingback: Dating

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMl6_0jPaGk&hd=1 Keratosis Pilaris Cure

    Keratosis Pilaris (KP) can be a ancestral pores and skin problem that impacts 40% on the the planet’s inhabitants. KP seems as a cluster regarding smaller red-colored blobs which might be in most cases on the second area of your biceps, legs, butt and much less generally within the experience, which might be wrongly diagnosed regarding acne. Though there’s no heal with regard to KP, you’ll find approaches to address it. We will provide you with precisely how.

  • http://LiveGirls.ws/ CocksCam.com

    Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was performing slightly research on that. And he just bought me lunch because I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!

  • http://orchepedia.naruyan.net/index.php?title=%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E8%80%85:MargeryGoulburn subway surfers hack

    I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your
    sites really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back in the future.

    Many thanks

  • http://tecnodialogo.com.br/talento/blog/view/81437/what-you-need-to-know-about-using-wordpress Mary Mickens

    Oh my goodness! an excellent write-up dude. Thanks a ton Nevertheless I’m experiencing concern with ur rss . Do not know why Can not sign up to it. Is there anyone obtaining identical rss difficulty? Anybody who knows kindly respond. Thnkx

  • http://CamGirls.ws/ girl webcam

    You will find surely a whole lot of particulars like that to take into consideration. That may possibly be a great point to bring up. I offer the suggestions above as fundamental inspiration even so clearly you’ll find queries like the a single you bring up where an incredibly strong aspect will likely be working in truthful great faith. I don?t know if greatest practices have emerged round troubles like that, nevertheless I’m certain that your job is clearly recognized as a fair game. Each boys and girls actually feel the influence of just a second’s pleasure, for the remainder of their lives.

  • http://www.whereto-buygarciniacambogia.com where can you buy garcinia cambogia

    Thank you for the well-written write-up. I drastically appreciated your generosity and support you present by the no price guidelines on your blog, in particular the ones provided by way of this article. I know Betty would like to find out a lot more of your weblog post. We’ve sent your web page link to her. We appreciate your thoughtfulness inside this challenging time.

  • http://www.uirapuru.biz/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=fulhamlocksmith.webnode.com fulham locksmith

    WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..extra wait .. …

  • Pingback: iherb coupon code

  • http://xunmeng.org Go To This Site

    tiffany silver jewellerycover numerous necklaces for a ceremony; wedding ring expensive jewelry, necklaces, companies and many others. Wedding ring attire precious jewelry will be designs at a wide selection of products and then coloration formula; gold bullion coated as well as rare metal plated utilizing treasures not to mention rocks,cheap tiffany necklaces,in almost any coloring mixture which usually placing a contented attractiveness to your account.

  • http://mc.twrx.ru/user/Annettesisslax/ jakikantor

    As a Newbie, I am continuously browsing online for articles that can benefit me. Thank you

  • http://www.epuls.pl/p/rozajewski/4605556 praca

    Excellent study, I in simple terms accepted this exact onto a pristine colleague who was simply responsibility somewhat research in that. And they immediately purchased me lunchtime because I ran athwart it regarding him grin For that reason tolerable, i’ll rephrase that: Thanks pertaining to lunch! Whenever you’ve an booming rule you’ve got a dictatorship. by Bother Azines Truman.

  • http://aikiweb.co.uk/ cheap ralph lauren

    cheap tiffany bracelets could possibly be perfectly while Bracelets fabricated from low-cost supplies plus bogus or even semiprecious boulders. Additionally it labeled design rings, waste pieces of jewelry and it thought is created being more inexpensive and economical with regard to repurchasing in order to compliment a special along with brand new outfit pattern.they are really primarily composed of low-cost ,http://www.cbs-appointments.co.uk,crystals like rhinestones and set throughout mix, silver precious metal yellow metal plated brass

  • http://lyzr.flfq.wavklfyi.tcsq.qypvthu.loqu.forum.mythem.es/aggirate/afhuurder/abdichtender/afvist/antither/woodine/ Ted Atengco

    I got what you mean , appreciate it for posting .Woh I am happy to find this website through google. “Being intelligent is not a felony, but most societies evaluate it as at least a misdemeanor.” by Lazarus Long.

  • Pingback: plumber glen burnie

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIzzC-nbX2k top commercials

    here are some hyperlinks to sites that we link to mainly because we believe they’re worth visiting

  • http://www.interiordezine.co.uk/ray-ban-c-726.html sunglasses ray ban sale

    Colour works an essential position within a prom dress throughout the exclusive nights. It should go with your epidermis skin tone. For the complementary impression, you’ll be able to call attention to a person’s figure by making use of slimming colours like wine, deep greyish, woodlands green, night time violet, wine red, chocolate, and the simple colorings of light tan, black, bleak, magic, yellow metal, in addition to myope. Prom dresses are likely to be formal celebration dresses, extended as well as smoothly stunning. cheap green prom dresses may be in line with the theme on the get together or they’re able to you should be standard tennis ball gowns. You cannot find any regular solution to define the “best prom dress”. Oahu is the the one that makes you’re feeling wonderful and provide the proper image-sweet, simple, pretty or even spectacular. The favourite prom dresses usually are satin, sequined, vintage fashions, the tiny black outfit, the asymmetrical sprained ankle treatment costume, a hanky ankle rehab ebook as well as the classic Cinderella basketball gown.

  • http://www.mundoknet.com/seguidores-do-instagram/ Seguidores do Instagram

    This can be basically the simplest and finest guidance I’ve ever encounter about this topic. Thank you for this incredibly educational weblog post of yours. Also, I enjoy writing articles which features a individual tone incorporated. I feel it makes your reader feel extra essential as well as inclined to believe me far more. Plus it seems to become additional real and not coming from a robot. I adore generating my guests feel critical and also special. I would like to give them the most beneficial suggestions on the best way to handle critical troubles for example this.

  • Pingback: Carpet Cleaning

  • http://meble-black-red-white.eu/jakikantor.html ranking kantorow online

    Heya i am for the primary time here. I came across this board and I in finding It really useful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to provide one thing back and aid others such as you helped me.

  • Pingback: sprei katun jepang

  • http://www.mansfieldwheelsactivitycentre.co.uk/test.asp Christiane Kinsolving

    Thanks for your post. I also feel that laptop computers have gotten more and more popular right now, and now are often the only kind of computer used in a household. The reason being at the same time that they are becoming more and more very affordable, their computing power keeps growing to the point where they’re as robust as personal computers out of just a few years ago.

  • http://softo-drom.com/user/Felicianisdeat/ kawa ziarnista do ekspresu

    WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..more wait .. …

  • http://www.acai.com.sg/where-to-buy-acai-berry-singapore-60-capsule-bottle.html buy acai berry singapore

    I’m delighted that I’ve seen this weblog. Lastly something not a junk, which we undergo incredibly frequently. The web site is lovingly serviced and saved as significantly as date. So it have to be, thanks for sharing this with us.

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hRi9rP-d7Y jp morgan 401k rollover

    Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our local library but I assume I learned additional clear from this post. I’m pretty glad to view such great information being shared freely out there.

  • Pingback: rollover 401k to ira

  • http://hostgatorkuponlari.bravejournal.com hostgator kupon kodu

    Thanks god i found this blog! Good job on writing.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dtp-0MmQVNE biggest trucks in the world

    the time to study or go to the material or internet sites we’ve linked to beneath the

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HJXcvvwYQk FSBO Houston TX

    I am glad that it turned out so well and I hope it is going to continue in the .future because it really is so worthwhile and meaningful towards the community.

  • Pingback: archery academy

  • http://www.almerlin.de/sitemap/p.php?a%5B%5D=roebuck+hunt+in+poland+%28%3Ca+href%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fagcflatglass-europe.de%2F__media__%2Fjs%2Fnetsoltrademark.php%3Fd%3Dostoja-hunting.eu%3Eclick+the+follow poland hunt

    Great Pics enjoyed reading your post. Congrats on being freshly pressed.

  • http://www.biobagusa.com/biobag_dog.htm buy viagra

    Sites of interest we’ve a link to

  • http://www.petsmart.com/dog/waste-disposal/cat-36-catid-100113 buy viagra

    although websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we really feel they’re really really worth a go through, so possess a look

  • Pingback: Truck Driving Jobs