Patience As the Crisis Unfolds

All bears are not created equal. Some are deflationists, some are inflationists. Some predict the end of the world on any stock market correction, some are buyers on corrections. While I’ve warned that the future is very bleak, I’ve also always cautioned that you need to get the timing right. The big crisis is NOT here yet. Let Europe collapse first, then let’s start talking.

I’m sure the panic surrounding S&P’s debt downgrade of America is still fresh in your minds. Remember how scared you were when stocks were collapsing? Remember all the talks of the world ending? Well amidst all the panic, stocks have rallied, as I said they would, and they are still positive on the year. Give it some time. Don’t join the Armageddon crowd.

Japan had their debt downgraded earlier in the decade and it was no big deal. What other options do the big money have at this point in time? Let Asia develop their markets- only then will the big money have a place to park. And it’s when the big money starts fleeing Treasuries that the real trouble will begin.

Gold

Gold has worked off some of it’s overbought conditions and I believe one last rally is in the cards. Then we should see a correction. I don’t really want to chase this rally higher; I’d much rather keep buying in a correction.

Just be patient. When gold corrects and everyone says the bubble finally ended, I’ll be giving you perspective and telling you to add. Just remember how hard it was to buy stocks into this correction. It will be no different with gold.

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  • Tom Burriesci

    You have been right on everything, is it too much to ask how low gold will go so I know when to buy more?
    I know you can’t be exact but ball park will do.  Thank you once again.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      $1500 or so is reasonable. 

      • Angie

        Hi Moses,
        I’m glad that I didn’t chase stocks up as you suggested last week…seems like the European debt fear is driving market to retest the lows…..do you think it’s a good time to add to position if we see below 11000 or 10600? Or hold off and add if we break through below 10600?

        Angie

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Hi Angie,

          Looks like were in a trading range. I would look for a retest of the recent lows, then a lot more weakness if we break 10,000.

          Moses

          • Angie

            Thanks Moses.  So is it wiser to hold off on buying at this point? Or should I slowly accumulate as market drops?

            angie

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            I’m sitting and watching. Want to see how this plays out a bit. 

  • Tom D

    Hi Moses
    Please don´t forget your european readers… What would you advice for them (ex. before/when the collapse start)?
    Thanks
    Tom D

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hi Tom,

      Dollars and gold, then gold. 

      Moses

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