The Economy Is Worse than Advertised

For a long time I said things are not that bad. I thought stocks would generally rise as the economy deteriorated, which they did, and I was in the minority of gold bugs that didn’t think hyperinflation was likely. Well now I’m getting more and more bearish by the day. The MF Global fiasco has me very concerned: why Jon Corzine isn’t being prosecuted for essentially stealing $1 billion is…

Our Immediate Future

Rip Van Winkle awakened from a multi-decade slumber to see a country he didn’t recognize. While the people he met upon awakening may have been a little scruffy, they had newfound freedom and the hope that the future would be better. Now the situation is reversed. We are putting an excessive burden of debt on our children and grandchildren. There are no jobs, and we are losing our civil liberties….

Gold is Going Nowhere

It never ceases to amaze me how normal corrections in gold get everyone so bent out of shape. Europe is collapsing and Western nations can’t balance their budgets. Japan is headed for a monumental collapse, and the combination of an aging population, a 200% debt-to-GDP ratio, and an overly xenophobic population guarantees an epic crisis there. Here in the U.S., the profligate spending of our leaders has put us in…

Too Nothing, Too Late

The financial panic of 2007 was pretty easy for me to predict, but I can understand why people didn’t see it coming. However, if you get blindsided this time around, it’s your fault. This is literally the easiest crisis to predict, and economic historians will no doubt look back and scratch their heads at the lack of intelligent policy decisions we made to prevent this crisis. This is not a case…

Gold Correction, Looking for Direction

What separates the men from the boys in investing is patience. Jesse Livermore always talked about how very few people kept their position for the duration of a bull market. Most people either sold too early to lock in profits or they sold too early after a shakeout. As I’ve said, 20%-30% corrections are normal; in bull markets all timing mistakes are forgiven as long as you hold your position….

Newsletter Announcement

Hello all. Thanks to those of you who expressed interest in my newsletter and all the kind words. Based on the feedback I’ve been getting from people, I’ve decided to create a 2 tiered subscription system. (Update #2: The right sidebar subscribe buttons should be working now. If you tried subscribing anytime before 3:30 PM Pacific time, I didn’t receive the payment and you’re probably not subscribed to the newsletter….

Gold Buying Opportunity and Personal Announcement

Gold has experienced a healthy correction since it tagged $1800 recently, but it is really no big deal. As long as gold holds $1730, the outlook is bullish and it is OK to buy on corrections. I still see $2000 as a reasonable target heading into 2012. You should be praying for corrections because they are the precursors to incredible rallies. The average gold bug in 2008 was rooting for…

Volatility Rising in Europe

We are living through one of those great shifts in history that you read about as a kid. I find it fascinating. U.S. bonds are spiking amidst volatility in Europe, and this is what must happen before U.S. bonds crash. I’ve always said Europe will collapse first, then the U.S. We are still the deepest financial market in the world, and this gives us time to prepare. Everything is connected….

Gold and Precious Metals

The End of QE2

Today we say goodbye to QE2- a failed program that brought few desirable results. Unemployment is down marginally, but home prices double dipped and commodity prices surged, contributing to the inflation we see today. The dollar and bonds are down, which indicates that quantitative easing has adverse consequences for a country riddled with debt. Remember, there was a debt crisis in Europe led by Greece, so the dollar should have…

Gold’s Wall of Worry

The recent surge in stock and gold prices following the market pessimism of just a week ago indicates how volatile markets can be. Although many people, especially gold bugs, are predicting a second leg down in stocks worse than what we saw in 2008, I don’t think this is happening. I believe we are simply in the process of creating a short-term bottom in stocks, gold, and commodities. We are…

Economic Slowdown Underway

More good news on the economic front as American consumer spending dropped to 20 month lows. I believe the bulls on the economy are officially extinct. Perhaps it is time to listen to the bears who have been right about the economy? What we face now is far more serious than a simple double dip recession. Think about it: if we run $1.6 trillion deficits in a “recovery”, how large will…

The Economic Non-Recovery

I have been very consistent in saying that the programs enacted by our government would not solve our economic ills. For awhile, there was actually a debate as to the efficacy of the government’s programs; now there is none. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find permabulls on the economy because quite frankly, most have gone into hiding. They know they were wrong. Where is the 6.8% unemployment rate we…