The Real Estate Dilemma

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index today confirmed what was corroborated by other indexes: home prices are on the decline. 15 out of 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index experienced price declines in August. While home prices are up 1.7% year-over-year, note that the Case-Shiller index is a lagging moving average of home prices, meaning recent issues with foreclosures have yet to be reflected in the index. I believe there is…

King Dollar?

The global currency crisis centered around the U.S. dollar is unfolding as expected, with over-indebtedness in the Western world leading to a global race to devalue. The mainstream financial media still carries hope that global economic leaders will work together to prevent a major currency crisis from occurring. I believe such hopes are short-sighted. Everyone knows the U.S. will continue to abuse its status as owner of the global reserve currency. Game theory…

Gold Stocks to Correct Further?

Gold has just completed its first weekly decline in 12 weeks. To all the gold bugs out there, let me assure you that this is a positive sign. We need to flush out all latecomers and weak hands.  We need bearish sentiment to reappear in a bit way- right in time  for a monster rally. We need to hear about how a slowing global economy is going to pressure jewelry demand,…

The Gold Bull Market, Public Confidence, and the Coming Change

The point of this blog is not to lecture about how gold is going to go straight up until the end of time. I’ve read history and studied markets: I know every asset class has its time in the sun. I try to be very balanced, which is why I have no problem making contrarian calls. I am one of the staunchest supporters of gold, but when it becomes as overbought as…

Will the Dollar Ever Rally?

No one said the markets aren’t tricky huh? Stocks and gold are staging a rally today after falling substantially yesterday. I still would not be pushing the long side here in either asset; the risk/reward simply isn’t there. The dollar is currently getting hammered, which is something I want to focus on. I expect the dollar to eventually fall in sustained fashion some time in the next 5 years. However, if the major…

Correction in Stocks and Gold Underway?

The outright melt up in most assets has emboldened investors to step in on the long side (finally). I’ve been saying recently that I don’t think it’s the best time to buy either stocks or gold. Objectively speaking, there is way too much bullishness in both asset classes. In fact, I’ve been trying to prepare you mentally for a correction so that you can take the right actions when the time…

China Sells U.S. Debt, Major Crisis Unfolding

There are major trends developing that are so obvious, sometimes I question the intelligence of investors who still have their blinders on. Gold is one major trend that I have publicly profited from despite constant resistance from the mainstream. If you think the trend in gold has reached its peak, then I will happily sell you some puts. The next correction in gold will get everyone beared up like it always does. I will be…

Gold $15,000?

The mainstream media tends to jumble all gold bulls together, but let me tell you, all gold bugs are not alike. Price targets for gold can range anywhere from $1,500 to $15,000, so even within the gold bug community there is some dissension. Deciding which gold thesis to believe is critical, since it will determine whether you make a fortune or get left holding the bag as gold inevitably collapses in…

Gold and Precious Metals

Gold $1000?

From Marketwatch, gold gearing up (again) to break $1,000?: The last week of July definitely lacked summer somnolence in the gold market. A brutal $14.40 sell-off on Tuesday caused chartists great distress. But gold held. And then on Friday it staged an even more powerful recovery, rising some $20, closing at $954.50 and repairing the week’s technical damage. Dan Norcini at JSMineset commented: “I must say that today’s sharp climb…

Weak Dollar, Strong Gold

My investment philosophy involves looking for clear macroeconomic trends and investing accordingly. I don’t think there’s a need to “diversify” into too many sectors; otherwise, I’d be buying consumer discretionary stocks right now. That being said, there’s one trend that I’m very confident about, and that’s a weaker dollar. A weaker dollar results in higher commodity prices, since commodities are denominated in dollars. Supply and demand also plays a role,…

Gold to $2000: It’s Only a Matter of Time

Gold has gotten a nice bid up this morning, benefiting in part from a collapsing dollar. I noted a couple of days ago that the charts support further weakness in the dollar. Keep an eye on the dollar index as it approaches the critical 78 level. I think of gold as the inverse of the Stock Market from 2 years ago. Stocks were hitting new highs even though the economy…

Gold Juniors

When the bull market in gold kicks into high gear, I believe it will be the juniors that outperform. When gold collapsed to 700 last year, the juniors got absolutely pummeled; many were down over 80%. Since then, many of the juniors have performed magnificently. Here’s one example: From a low of 0.38 last year, U.S. Gold is now 2.73. Juniors are quite speculative, so one should be careful to…