Gold and the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Today news came in that more or less confirmed the double dip in housing. If you’ve read my blog, you knew the double dip was coming. Let the dumb money forever predict a recovery in housing. There’s not much to say about housing except that it is going nowhere for at least a decade. That will pose huge problems of its own, but that’s a discussion for another day.  Let’s talk…

Staying Focused on the End Game

In the current environment, you really have to think on your feet. I drew a line in the sand between 1175-1180 on the S&P. Given current price action,  I  am closing a portion of  my short-term long trades on strength. Although I am getting out only slightly in the black, I can take solace in knowing that I do have a little more information now. I am seeing strength in the dollar and weakness…

The Day the Dollar Died

If you have real money on the line in the market, it is critically important to be balanced when making forecasts.  This is something I try to do on an ongoing basis; I am always looking at new data and new trends to see where my thinking may be flawed. I don’t go around looking only for evidence that confirms my argument so that I can feel good about myself and…

European Crisis = U.S. Crisis

Economic data is coming in mixed today. While initials jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008, median home prices fell to a 7-year low. With such conflicting data, the question naturally arises: Will the U.S.  economy recover, especially without real estate leading the way? To get a glimpse of what awaits us, we should turn to Europe. Ireland continues to make headlines with its IMF-induced austerity measures, which I  don’t think will prevent…

Rising Tensions Bullish for Gold

Today’s volatility in markets is being attributed to tensions in the Korean peninsula. As I’ve said many times before, war is one of the unfortunate byproducts of economic malaise. When things go wrong domestically, countries tend to blame others. The U.S. is perhaps the global leader in this tendency. You are already seeing progressively nasty rhetoric between China and the U.S.  about supposed currency manipulations. Trade wars are starting to…

Economic Reality Setting In

Anyone with a modicum of common sense knows that there has been no economic recovery. Yes we have some GDP growth, but at what cost? Do we really need to run $1.4 trillion dollar deficits to create 2% in GDP growth?  Initial unemployment claims are still hovering over 400,000. The number of individuals unemployed for over 6 months is still at record highs. The writing is already on the wall…

Is the Correction in Gold Over?

I want to take the time to talk about trading these moves in gold, especially since it appears a lot of people are confused by the gold market right now. First and foremost, you want to be on the right side of the trade. I suspect most of you are long gold or you wouldn’t be reading this blog. That being said, I know a lot of people are not maximizing gains on the…

Rally Time?

I am always amused at the timing of rallies in various markets. Right after supposedly deflationary CPI figures gave deflationists the courage to predict a collapse in all assets, a sharp rally ensues. I try not to get too caught up in doomsday forecasts for assets when the market continues to indicate that the majority of the declines are likely behind us. I am not going to cling to a flawed…

Gold and Precious Metals

Reality vs Blind Optimism: What does the Future Hold?

I am convinced we are at a key inflection point that when over, will leave no question in anyone’s mind whether or not our economy is in recovery. Never before have I seen such a disparity between the wildly bullish, and the very few that are still bearish. Anyone who doesn’t buy the government’s propaganda of economic recovery is labeled a “permabear” or “pessimist”. The standard responses in support of…

Future of the Dollar and Gold

Nice explanation of why devaluation of the U.S. dollar is on the agenda of the Federal Reserve, and what the implications are. Follow

Gold, Equities, and the Dollar

After months of choppy action in gold, equities, and the dollar, all three markets are starting to make bigger moves. The Fed is considering slowly removing liquidity from the system, and everyone is waiting to see how the markets react. Something I noticed on Friday intraday is that equities continued to fall in the face of dollar weakness. I strongly believe this is going to be more of a long-term…

Mark Johnson: Gold Stocks to Outperform Bullion

From Bloomberg, USAA’s Johnson Sees Gold Mining Stocks Outshining the Metal: Mark Johnson, whose precious-metals mutual fund topped all rivals over the past decade, is betting gold-company stocks will rise faster than bullion as miners’ profit margins widen. “For every 1 percent move in gold, the stocks should gain 2 to 3 percent,” Johnson, 59, said in a telephone interview from San Antonio, where his USAA Precious Metals and Minerals…