dejavu

Gold: Deja Vu All Over Again?

I live for these moments. When I start getting spam comments that indicate fear (for gold investors) and schadenfreude (for gold permabears), I know that some kind of important turning point is near. These sort of heuristics make my life easier. My roommates can attest that when gold drops in price, my reaction is to do a really quick dance, followed by an enthusiastic cheer. Then I  go back to living my life….

king

Gold: The Once and Future King

One of the greatest joys of investing is going totally against the crowd and getting it right. Not only does this guarantee the biggest returns, but it shows your are thinking independently. It always surprises me that people get locked into panic mode, as is the case now with gold, mostly because by definition one overdone trend creates a trend of equal or greater force in the opposite direction. Call it…

1st Rule of Investing: Don’t Get Wiped Out

Most people who read this blog are probably concerned about gold, so let me just start off by saying that gold is fine. I am praying for a correction in the $1400-$1500 range so I can buy and plan my retirement somewhere in Asia. Gold is the ultimate hedge against fiscal irresponsibility, and I have seen nothing change on that front. One of the millstone global currencies, the Yen, has…

Discovering the Correct Path in Investing

I made a New Year’s resolution to try writing more, both on my blog and in my newsletter. To be honest, sometimes I wondered why I should write. I used to get in the most ridiculous arguments with people who didn’t know what the hell they were talking about, and it used to piss me off.  I also know that things are going to get so volatile that I am likely to…

Meltdown in America?

Those of you who have followed my blog know that I am not inclined to exaggerate and that I am pretty unbiased. I was the biggest silver bull out there, but also silver’s biggest bear when it started resembling a bubble. I was also the biggest real estate bear, criticizing misguided policies like the first-time homebuyer tax credit along the way, but I packed up everything and moved to Las Vegas to…

Obama’s Reelection and the Future

I always talk about how in investing, it’s critical to be unbiased and let the facts speak for themselves. The same goes with politics. Unfortunately, we all know most people don’t have a clue when it comes to investing, and politics, because emotions cloud their judgment. It’s more like a religion on both sides. The whole concept of a 2-party system is flawed; after all, when’s the last time anything…

Gold’s Prolonged Consolidation

It’s always hard to keep the long-term perspective in mind when you “know” an asset, such as gold, should be rallying much more than it is. People who first learn about markets are inclined to believe that fundamentals and rationality should dictate price action in a linear fashion; after all, this is the thought process we learn in school. However, veteran traders know that markets move to their own rhythm…

Gold Rallying- Finally

Gold is now making a “stealth” rally after an extended consolidation. The naysayers have been around for something like a decade, but gold is going nowhere. At the end of the day, gold at $1600+ reflects a lack of confidence in our government. If Obama really did bring the “hope and change” he promised, gold would be trading below $1,000 right now without question. We are headed straight for a recession,…

Gold and Precious Metals

gold1

Gold to Retest Highs?

If there is anything I’ve learned over the years of trading/investing, it is to fade the crowd. When gold was rallying to all-time highs, I was warning of a monster correction. This wasn’t a “rational” call since the debt crisis in Europe was intensifying, but then again, markets are not rational. You must feel out markets and go with your instinct You must constantly adjust your forecasts to account for price…

QE

The Market Implications of More QE

It has been an interesting couple of days. The move by the Fed to buy longer term bonds evidences the debt crisis that is unfolding as investors were shortening their maturities. No one in their right mind is buying 30 year government paper in the midst of a debt crisis; hence the Fed’s need to step in. People are scratching their heads right now at the movement in stocks and…

Patience As the Crisis Unfolds

All bears are not created equal. Some are deflationists, some are inflationists. Some predict the end of the world on any stock market correction, some are buyers on corrections. While I’ve warned that the future is very bleak, I’ve also always cautioned that you need to get the timing right. The big crisis is NOT here yet. Let Europe collapse first, then let’s start talking. I’m sure the panic surrounding…

Is the Gold Correction Over?

After the panic of a couple of days ago, gold has recovered nicely. As I was telling you, waterfall moves are the time to buy in a bull market. Spike moves are the time to sell, even in a bull market. I think the odds favor a correction before $2000-$2100, but this was a nice trade for people with the discipline to buy. It takes discipline to sell when everyone…