Obama’s Reelection and the Future

I always talk about how in investing, it’s critical to be unbiased and let the facts speak for themselves. The same goes with politics. Unfortunately, we all know most people don’t have a clue when it comes to investing, and politics, because emotions cloud their judgment. It’s more like a religion on both sides. The whole concept of a 2-party system is flawed; after all, when’s the last time anything materially changed in the U.S. under either party?

To be completely honest, I think the GOP will be better positioned in 2016 to win the Presidency because Obama has a serious economic crisis on his hands without the tools to solve it. After 4 more years of failed policies, it won’t be Bush’s recession anymore. The fiscal cliff should be front and center headed into 2013, and this will be the “uh oh” moment for everyone. Capital gains rising from 15-40%? Expiration of the Bush tax cuts? This is the recipe for a Greece-like economic slide. Unless both parties miraculously come to a compromise, we are headed for 10%+ unemployment between 2013 and 2014.

This deep into the debt crisis, I’m very shocked that people are not giving it more coverage. By 2016, we can legitimately have half of our government revenue consumed by interest payments alone. We are already in the viscous cycle where deficits lead to higher taxes, which lead to the rich fleeing, which leads to less revenue, which leads to higher taxes, and again, more rich people fleeing. No matter what you believe on a personal level about progressive vs flat tax rates, the fact remains that human nature doesn’t change. And with higher taxes, people look abroad for safety. The number of Americans renouncing their citizenship is going up exponentially, and my best guess is that this trend will continue rising.

2013 is going to be one of those crazy years that lays the foundation for this coming economic collapse. I expect a lot of volatility in stocks. For now, we are probably talking about a sell-off as the higher capital gains rate comes into focus. Then there is going to be a monster rally because the spread between dividends and bonds is going to become even more skewed. It is going to be a bumpy ride.

Physical gold in your ownership is the best course of action. An underground economy will emerge, as it always does in times of currency crisis, and gold and silver will be the foundation of this new economy. Our economy will first experience deflation, then inflation. Or put another way, first hoarding and uncertainty, then the acquisition of physical assets and fear. It may sound crazy now, but the volatility coming in the next 4 years should rival or even surpass what we saw in 2008. We are very, very close to some major economic catastrophies.

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  • Angela Young

    Hi Mosses
    Would u still recommend buying into weakness in gold and stocks during the coming correction on the next 6-12 months?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I would wait until at least the beginning of the year. Fear should hit the markets relatively soon.

      • David

        Moses, in regard to waiting until at least the beginning of the year, you feel the gold spot price will decline between now and then? The Dow has dropped +/- 400 points in the past 2 days and yet gold has not moved much. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts.

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Yes I basically believe everything will be sold because of a general level of uncertainty. Even in 2008 gold got shellacked until people could logically assess the situation. However, I expect the bull market to resume in a big way in 2013.

          • David

            Any thoughts on where you believe the bottom will be? And would you purchase silver, or, stay primarily in gold?

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            Bottoms are, of course, hard to predict. But if I had to guess I’d say some time in the Spring. As long as you are getting the physical metal, either option is fine. I would lean towards a foundation of gold first though.

  • S. Pepper

    I agree with you that the two party system in this country is flawed. Perhaps we need a new political party in this country…Republicans seem to be out of touch with regular folks, and put forth old policies from the 50′s. I think the party may be losing it’s relevance in 2012. I’d like to see a fiscally conservative party sans ideas around science being bogus, and believe in freedom and equality for all, and dare I say it? Even women (52% or so of the population)!. In any event, I think Romney needed to lay out his fiscal plan for the country. We’re all adults here, and can take the fact that we’re gonna have to experience some pain in the pocketbook. You can’t vote for ??? I like the facts, please.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Yea huge gaffe for the GOP to become so extreme. They could have probably won with a more moderate candidate.

    • Bettye Jo Martin

      Herman Cain has suggested maybe we need a third party.
      Initially I was not in favor of Romney, but the more I learned about him and the more I heard him speak, the more I liked him. I think he could have turned this country around by applying sound business principles to our problems. Too bad. We missed our chance. I cannot think of anyone else who can save this country, but surely there is a savior somewhere out there, but he may not be a Republican.

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        We needed someone “outside the system” so to speak. The only person that comes to mind is Ron Paul.

  • moark

    When U.S. economic data is bad, gold falls, when U.S. economic data is good it falls again. It is like joke. Gold is a bear more than one year.

  • ItsTheFraudStupids

    Correction: Obama’s re-election means THERE IS NO FUTURE.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      good point

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