Let the Gold Rush Begin

The annals of history are littered with examples of collapsing confidence sending the public flocking to gold. A collapsing currency is actually the norm in history. I think back to the Romans and how rising levels of expenditures and taxation led to a debasement of the currency and an utter collapse in confidence.  I think back to John Law in France, whose moronic exploits as a central banker are rivaled by only Helicopter Ben Bernanke. I consider the Argentinian experience where collapsing confidence was directly correlated with currency collapse. This is not my imagination- these are events that have been recorded in history. Believe me, history is being made as we speak.

To preempt a truly drastic crash in the dollar, there will probably be a new global currency arrangement. The same geniuses who didn’t see what was coming in the first place are going to gain power. The public is going to be confused, and their frantic actions will give the term volatility a new meaning. These are the type of events you have to be prepared for mentally; you will not be able to react accordingly if you are taken by surprise.

Sometimes even I have to splash some cold water on my face and ask myself: Is this really happening? Are our leaders really as moronic as I thought? Is the bond market really on the verge of cracking? Did the government really implement a tax on gold transactions because they foresee a move out of the dollar? Is President Obama really as unpopular as I predicted in the midst of the madness over “hope and change”, reflecting the collapse in public confidence that is, in fact, unstoppable? The answer to all these questions is yes.

There is no doubt in my mind that gold should be trading at $2,000-$3,000. You can bet that a move to these levels will affect all of our lives. The government is going to be increasingly desperate because their coffers are running dry.  Higher levels of taxation in all forms will force people to avoid paying taxes like our good friend Timothy Geithner. Trust me, governments are pretty stupid: they don’t realize that onerous levels of taxation will simply create a move into tangible assets and a trend towards tax evasion. They will learn this lesson the hard way in the years ahead. In the meantime, gold is going to fly.

The move today in gold is being driven by a collapse in confidence. You are witnessing a subtle move out of the dollar, which I have been warning you about.  There is incessant talk about how the dollar is the prettiest pig in the trough. This is complete and utter nonsense. If this were true, gold would not be trading above $1300. The dollar would not be down 10% in the past couple of months. The facts are starting to appear in the light of day.

There is going to be major public participation in the gold market. It will only take about 10% of the population buying gold for some major monster moves to occur. At $1300,  the veil of ignorance should have already removed from everyone’s eyes. Surprisingly, ignorance persists. Hence I will be buying the next pullback in a big way.  There is nothing stopping gold from going where it needs to go.  Events are converging perfectly. Confidence is on the verge of collapsing. Epic feedback loops are about to develop. The time for conjecture and forecasts is over. It is just time folks.

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  • fubsy_cooter

    Moses,

    It looks like your target is appx 2-3k for gold. I believe that’s a very conservative estimate. My crystal ball shows the public camping on sidewalks outside local coin dealers hoping to get their hands on the vanishing supplies of gold and silver at 10% above spot. There will be fights breaking out as people try to be the first in the door. Cab drivers, school teachers and grocery clerks will hand out business cards for their moonlighting ventures as brokers of precious metals. Waiters will give tips on the hottest mining stocks etc….Except this will all be done with a painfully finite resource. The price of gold will likely begin its parabolic rise from the levels you predict, and possibly higher. I can easily see moves of 10% in a day, and 200 to 300% in the final year blowoff top. I would be suprised if gold topped under 8000 an ounce and silver under 200.00.

    I am not a wild eyed gold bug. I just study bull and bear markets, manias and panics, and I know that they routinely extend further in their respective direction than it is practical to imagine. I suspect that given the emotionality around PMs, as well as the fear around the collapse of the middle class, combined with limited amounts of gold will create a supernova of mania the likes of which we have not seen in our lifetimes.

    JMO

    Mitch

  • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

    Hey Mitch,

    Well I just want to err on the side of caution. 2 or 3 thousand dollars is a level at which I will reassess. We may very well see some of the scenarios you lay out.

  • Anonymous

    Hey, The link in your last tweet isn’t working (404).

    Check this out:

    http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

    I know they’re long but extremely interesting. For instance:

    Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31
    ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

    All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of “freely traded” “managed gold”? ”

    This question has more impact on the gold market of today than it did then! In days past, it was held as good knowledge that the US stopped gold backing to protect the dollar and keep gold from leaving to other shores.

    But, in the same time frame, all central banks did sell gold to all persons, even the US. All treasuries held gold and dollars as reserves. To what end did the world financial system gain with the dollar off gold backing, and then allowed to “dirty float” against all currencies? Would the world not have been better off to find gold revalued to, say $300 and then begin a “dirty float”? Noone would have lost, and the inflation would have , at best, not have been worse!

    Truly, I tell the reason for this action. The US oil companies knew that the cheap reserves were found. The governments knew this also. The only low cost oil reserves in the world at this time were in the Middle East, and their cost to find and produce was very low. It was known, that, in time, ALL oil would come from this land. As much higher US dollar prices were needed to allow exploration and production of other reserves, worldwide. But, how to get crude prices, up, when the Gulf States were OK to pump and produce in exchange for “gold backed dollars”? I will not name the gentlemen that brought this thinking to the surface in that era, but it was discussed. It was known that oil liked gold. It was known that “local oil” would be used up without higher prices. What if, the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, and gold was managed “upward” to say, $208 per ounce? The dynamics of the market would force oil to rise and allow for much needed capital to search for the higher priced oil that was known to exist! The producers would find shelter in gold even as the price of oil was increased in terms of a now “non gold dollar”! Price inflation would rise, but gold and oil would also increase. The dollar would continue to be used as the only payment for oil, and in doing so replace gold as the backing for this “reserve currency”. All would be fair.

    The war in 1973 and the Iran problem did make markets “overshoot”, but all did work to the correct end. The result was “a needed higher price for a commodity that was, as reserves, in much over supply by the wrong countries”! It was known that the public would never have accepted this “proposition” as fair. To this end, we have come.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hey Zaknick,

      Thanks for the heads up on the Twitter. My recent site move is causing some technical difficulties!

      Interesting pieve. Does this person write every day?

  • Anonymous

    I’m pretty sure he doesn’t write anymore. I’m only on the 3rd page of his “THOUGHTS!” but everything I’ve read just clicks smoothly with my 10 year study of the world, economics and finance (and the bankster who run it).

    There is somebody who posted as Friend Of Another (FOA) at the Golden Trail site but I’ve not read it yet:

    http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.html

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