Learning from Bubble Tops

If my readers agree with everything I say, I am probably doing something wrong. This blog isn’t for people to reaffirm what they already believe; if you carry this kind of mindset, you will not grow as person or as an investor. I hope that I can change people’s views on certain topics and vice versa. There is so much room for growth if we keep an open mind, stay objective, and learn from our mistakes.

I remember reading something along the lines of “the smart person learns from his own mistakes, but the wise person learns from the mistakes of others.” As an investor who is still relatively young, I try to learn from the mistakes of others. I wasn’t even born when gold and silver bubbled over in 1980. When the internet bubble popped in 2000, I was more interested in playing video games than tracking the market. Obviously since I didn’t directly experience these events, I am at a disadvantage. But I also believe that not directly experiencing these events gives me an advantage because I can analyze these events through a clear lens. If I made a lot of money during the gold bubble, I may be biased. The same goes for if I lost my shirt going long gold at the very top.

As it stands, I can just observe things like price action, investor sentiment, debt levels, and money supply objectively. That’s why you won’t hear me say things like: “Gold is going to $100,000 because the dollar is going to 0 and there will be rampant hyperinflation!” Instead I say things like: “Gold has lagged the money supply, national debt, and stocks over the past 30 years so it is likely undervalued.” These are two different approaches to looking at things.

That being said, I’m still trying to figure out why lightening up on silver at these levels is so crazy. It’s interesting, because when I was buying at $9 after a 50% correction in 2008, I looked to my left, I looked to my right, and no one was with me. Over 50% of my net worth is still in silver and silver-related shares. Trust me, I believe in the silver story. But I also believe that you should not press the long side on an asset that has risen 170% in 7 months. And if this is the parabolic move to $100 that people are expecting, then I will not wait until $100 to unload my position; I will be unloading on the way up. I am not going to sacrifice 400%+ gains because I want 600% gains. This is just not my investing style.

There is absolutely no way anyone can say the price action in silver is any different from other bubble tops such as the top in the Nasdaq, the top in the Nikkei, or the top in gold in 1980. At tops, the perception surrounding an asset changes. People lose perspective. People predict 5% corrections instead of 10-20% corrections. There is a frenzy. Instead of getting caught up in price action, we should try to learn the lessons of history. Price and time- these things tell a story. It is exceptionally hard for people to think rationally when prices are moving so drastically. Try to stand apart from the crowd and think things through with a clear head.

People think I’m jumping up and down over this move in silver, but I’m not. Gold is trending in a much more constructive way for the long-term oriented investor. I always thought that gold and silver would become bubbles at more or less the same time; now I’m starting to think silver will become a bubble first. It may not be this year or next, but the bubble in silver looks like it will pop first. Most of the people who comment or email me tell me they like this blog because I’m objective. Well look, I’m being objective here: the rally in silver is very extreme. The action in silver is very bubbly, but I am not calling it a bubble yet. I’d rather just lighten up and take it from there.

Each of you has the freedom to do whatever you want with your capital. You can go long here on leverage if you want. As for me, I’m content taking some profits. If I’m wrong, I’ll commend all the people who predicted a further parabolic rise in silver for making a good call.

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  • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

    Dude I love all your posts. If I didn’t I wouldn’t follow it regularly. Hell one of your posts were featured on thedailycrux.com. thats saying something.

    The problem I see with your ideology is you are not using silver and gold as currency. you are using it as purely investing tool. So if you feel that the silver bubble is the first to pop, where do you recommend putting your equity that you have build up over the years of your investing? Back into a paper asset and in the US Dollar? That to me doesn’t make sense. Yet as you said… learn from other people’s mistakes. so please share with me. share with us. Because how I understand your post is that you are pulling out of silver to save your already huge gains… and the way I am reading it you cash out. But where do you put your money next to protect it?

    Regards,

    Colton

    • Essex7477

      Colton, excellent points. There was a very similar discussion on ZH this afternoon: If one sells silver right now, where do they put profits if they don’t want to be in USD-denominated assets or any other fiat currencies? Almost all of the many ZH’ers were staying long silver (especially physical) or were taking very minor profits, mostly in SLV. Personally, I sold some of my SIVR and rolled it into high quality junior silver mining stocks. Like you, I look at gold and silver as real money, real currencies and I don’t want to be anywhere near the USD. I live in much greater fear of a USD collapse than I do any type of correction in silver. Silver will recover, the USD will not.

      • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

        I have been following this company called Silver Wheaton. They have had some corrections, but what interests me is how much silver they have wrapped up and their purchase price. Its a silver streaming company that has some 15 contracts to purchase around 40 million ounces of silver by 2013 at around $4 an ounce. with silver prices going up… I would think this is a place to get huge gains. But even so my philosophy of what is coming is “if you don’t have it with you, you don’t own it.” So as the fake stock market goes up, the dollar inflates and crumbles… yet silver and gold are money… not investments right now.

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          I have a large position in Silver Wheaton. I was a buyer at $2.50.

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        Well I guess I differ ever so slightly from your philosophy and the philosophy of some Zero Hedgers. I am not trying to run out of the dollar per se. But if I were to run out of the dollar and into other currencies such as gold and silver, I would much rather have a heavy weighting in silver. If I had more freedom to speculate, I would have a heavier weighting in silver (which I do).

        The U.S. dollar may collapse, that is very true. But what if it doesn’t? The point I’m trying to make is that the time to go “all-in” was when silver was below $20 and gold was below $1,000. I still think that a major crisis is coming for the U.S., but that doesn’t mean it’s coming tomorrow. It appears as of now it will years away.

        • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

          hmmm I believe the Crisis has already begun. The number one thing most speculators and investors forget to take into consideration is what happens to a few million or more people when all the sudden they have no food because they can not afford it? Literally we are just around the corner of people living in storage units. Hell out side of Sacramento is a growing tent city already. Many of these things which are not being reported on main stream media. Out of sight out of mind sort of thing. So what happens then? I can see your view as an investor… but I believe the real question isn’t what if the dollar doesn’t crash? But when? What do you mean by years away?

          • Essex7477

            Colton, my thoughts EXACTLY. You’re right on the money (pun fully intended). The only people who will survive this catastrophe are those who own physical gold and silver, which is less than 1 percent of the population. We will survive (financially) as we’ve prepared ourselves for this disaster. I’m a HUGE reader of every major PM and economic blog and website and the consensus of the real, bona fide experts–almost all of whom are NOT on Wall Street–is that the USD is imploding. As the USD goes, so goes the American economy.

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            I think we are in agreement except for the timing of the crisis. I think it will take a couple of years.

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            Well I think a crisis is going to hit, but not necessarily in the next couple of months. I think the interest payments on the national debt as a portion of revenue needs to rise a little higher. The low interest rates of the past couple years have bought the government some time.

        • Essex7477

          Years away? The USD collapse has already begun; it is accelerating, and it will be devastating to every American. I’ve posted below links to James Turk’s comments from this past week as just one example of what the majority of the most respected PM experts in the world are saying about this issue:

          http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/18_James_Turk_-_Negative_US_Credit_Watch_Signals_Dollar_Collapse.html

          http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/20_James_Turk_-_We_Live_on_the_Edge_of_Chaos%2C_Dollar_to_Plummet.html

          http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html

          http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hey Colton,

      Thanks Colton, appreciate you reading.

      As far as investments go, I feel I have more flexibility by taking some profits here. 1) I can buy back into silver if/when a correction comes. 2) I can buy income-producing real estate. 3) I can buy foreign-denominated bonds. 4) I can go short Treasuries. There are any number of options. By sticking to the silver trade 100%, especially following an extreme movement in prices, I feel I am somewhat handcuffed.

      All my actions should be viewed on a relative basis. A lot of people who may be adding here because they are supremely bullish won’t have the same allocation to silver that I do even after I lighten up. It’s just that I came from such a position of bullishness that my position was huge.

      Moses

      • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

        are you purchasing your income producing real estate as subject to/seller finance?

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Not as of now.

  • http://www.TheTailDoesNotWagTheDog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    ‘There is absolutely no way anyone can say the price action in silver is any different from other bubble tops such as the top in the Nasdaq, the top in the Nikkei, or the top in gold in 1980. ”

    Sure they can. First, silver is money, and stocks are paper claims on future earnings. Also, Volker is not the current head of the Fed, and the current Fed head will clearly not jack interest rates to 19% to save the USD, to the contrary, he seems determined to destroy it.

    Other than THAT, yeah sure, silver’s in a bubble…

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Well I think raising interest rates would actually be inflationary this time around. And I don’t think silver is a bubble–yet.

  • Rocco

    According to http://www.zealllc.com/2010/silvtop.htm after the previous toppings, the price fell about 15% during the first week. So if you have made a 400% return, I think you could wait a bit more:)

  • Anonymous

    No harm taking a profit, right?

    • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

      What good is taking a profit if you lose it all as soon as you take it out because the dollar is crashing so fast you lose everything you gained? Messing with silver/gold mining shares can make you big bucks. They are still relatively low and seem to be lagging. I believe that is because the big boys are toying the market. Just like the financial crash of ’08, they know exactly what is going on and could care less about people. They care about themselves. If you are willing to play long on mining shares and not be afraid of a super volatile market, take your gains over the next 6 and put them into actually holding metals. Anyone playing ETF’s is playing monopoly in my opinion. You have a lot of gains, it’s just worthless.

      I once took my my monopoly money to the corner gas station when I was a kid and the damn cashier wouldn’t accept my money. What’s up with that? Oh it was worthless… I just didn’t know it yet. That is the stage we are in with the US Dollar. It is worthless… and the blind American just doesn’t know it yet. So they keep trying to spend it… and one day they won’t get anything for it. Well at least very little.

      The real problem is so little are voicing out and so many are still believing the lies coming from Washington.

      I work as a top Real Estate professional where I work. One thing I have learned over my career is whatever anyone tells you their success is… is a utmost complete lie. All I have to do is pull up their numbers and look and I can see they are broke and haven’t sold any houses. It is the same thing with the US Government Officials, AKA talking bobble heads. President Obama is saying we need to be able to borrow more money to add to our huge amounts of debt to pay for promises of health care and other crap he can’t fulfill. He is promising a false “American Dream” of laziness. What we must remember is this country was built on innovation and determination. Men like Thomas Edison failing 10,000 times before the light bulb became something. This is what must return… is innovation. Nothing else will work.

      Regards,
      Colton

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        I agree we need to get back to the mindset of innovation. Our education system is floundering and I strongly believe we are getting left behind.

  • http://www.stockresearchportal.com Ian R. Campbell

    I think this an excellent and balanced article. As I read it Moses is taking profits on part of his physical silver holdings, not all of his holdings, something I have not as yet myself decided to do – but am actively considering. I believe strongly in physical gold as real money, find physical silver more complex to assess, but have owned both for some time having predicted the demise of the U.S.$ as early as 2005 based primarily on the continuous build-up of U.S. Trade Deficits and loss of manufacturing jobs to that point. I write daily e-mail commentaries that are sent to Subscribers of http://stockresearchportal.com, a Resource Stocks Research website. If you are interested in my current views on physical gold and physical silver you can find an April 15 commentary titled ‘Silver – Too Fast? at http://goo.gl/P9USd, and an April 21 commentary titled ‘Gold & Silver – What’s Driving Their Prices?’ at http://goo.gl/k6BtD. At a far more advanced age I am 100% with Moses in his advice to continually test one’s hypotheses, and to not get locked into a singular mindset. Good on him for continuously making that point to his readers.

    • Essex7477

      Ian, I think you need to fully evaluate MK’s comments analysis on the USD. I found it absolutely SHOCKING that he does not believe the dollar is in CRISIS. In all honesty, I’ve now had to step back and re-evaluate him as a serious analyst. He clearly needs to broaden his research, reading and understanding what is happening with the USD and all fiat currencies.

      • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

        I’m sure he received a bonus to say that.

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        I never said the dollar wasn’t in crisis. You’re putting words in my mouth Essex.

        • Essex7477

          Moses, here is EXACTLY what you wrote: “The U.S. dollar may collapse, that is very true. But what if it doesn’t?… I still think that a major crisis is coming for the U.S., but that doesn’t mean it’s coming tomorrow. It appears as of now it will years away. ”

          “I think we are in agreement except for the timing of the crisis. I think it will take a couple of years.”

          Years away? The USD is in crisis RIGHT NOW!!! How could any COMPETENT analyst not acknowledge that the USD isn’t in crisis RIGHT NOW?

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            Hey Essex,
            I really appreciate your comments, but let’s try to keep it respectful.

            I get the sense that we are arguing semantics here. What do you mean by a dollar crisis? By the definition I think you have, the dollar was in crisis since the collapse of Bretton Woods. In other words, the eventual demise of the dollar is inevitable because there is no solid backing of the currency, deficit spending is rampant, we have massive unfunded liabilities, etc. About this I agree.

            My definition of a dollar crisis is when it really hits the fan. You will see lines around the block with people waiting to buy gold and silver. People will trade in their dollars en masse for artwork, wine, food, etc. Global leaders will have emergency meetings to discuss the future of the dollar. Under this definition of a dollar crisis, I think the dollar crisis is years away.

            I hope my position is making more sense now?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Thanks Ian. Nice blog you have there.

  • fubsy_cooter

    My take. Silver is not like 1980. The public is not involved nor is the majority of the investing public in any meaningful way. I think the parabola that will match 1979-1980 is a ways off yet. With that said, I do think we’re near a significant top. The blogs are read have shifted to reasons why silver won’t go down, and how high its going to go. People are leveraged in AGQ and options. They are making far out predicitons for the eventual rise in price on this rally. I sense a top soon. It may be 10 bucks higher, but the longer it takes, the more severe the corrective move. Like you, Moses, I don’t want to get in that. I have made a satisfying sum over the past two years, and if we open strong tomorrow, I will book profits on all my silver and silver miners. I will shift 40% of my portfolio into DGP as I see gold’s rise as quite orderly, and I suspect a blow off top in gold to end the magnificent rally it has enjoyed since late 2008. I’ll add to DGP as market action dictates, but expect to sell that within a six weeks or so.

    f

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