Is Gold Flying Under the Radar?

It’s hard for Americans to understand that gold is an asset that reflects global confidence, not just confidence in America. So arguments against gold that are focused just on America are not entirely valid to me. Even if we solved our debt problems, which is unlikely, there still would be huge sovereign debt crises in the Euro zone and Japan. Although gold would not rise as much as it would with a U.S. debt collapse, it would do just fine because these problems are global.

It is natural for people to think only in terms of their currency when pricing various assets. Because of this currency bias, Americans probably don’t realize that gold is approaching its highs in terms of Euros. Earlier today gold made new all-time highs in British pounds.

We think in terms of demand in the U.S. or inflation rates in the U.S. But are people rioting in Greece not allowed to buy gold? What about people in Spain who see a huge crisis coming? What about people retired in Japan who have been living through a 2 decade depression that is only getting worse? What about people living in nations in Africa and the Middle East that are experiencing social unrest? We must try to understand that it is not only about us.

For years all I’ve been hearing is that the global economy will get better and that the debt crisis is behind us. Instead civil unrest actually rises while the economy stagnates. I’ve previously written about how “bad” things tend to cluster together historically. Why is it that we are experiencing a sovereign debt crisis at the same time we have droughts around the world? I’m not sure, but this is what happened during the Great Depression too. These type of things cycle, and we must deal with it intelligently.

Rising food prices due to the falling dollar and extreme weather globally are creating serious civil unrest around the world. This is the kind of civil unrest that will eventually spread throughout Europe and the U.S. No one has jobs, prices are rising, and our governments are broke. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out this is a formula for serious problems down the line.

Although I presume most people who read this blog are gold bugs, I’m pretty sure most of you are not rushing out to buy gold at $1500. Gold equities look very attractive to me, but I’m also pretty sure most of you are not buying into weakness. So if even gold bugs are apathetic about gold right now, what do you think about everyone else? And are bull markets built on a foundation of apathy or excitement? I’m telling you that the price action in gold is extremely bullish and that this will be very apparent in hindsight.

I am just about pounding the table that you should be buying gold in this period of consolidation. Gold stocks have taken a beating with the stock market even though gold has held up pretty well the last couple of months. These are the kind of divergences you should try to capitalize on. I am loving it that people are apathetic even though gold is approaching its all-time highs; this suggests to me that we may be seeing a rocket launch move soon.

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  • Anonymous

    Although you are preaching to the choir MK, your readers should know that the rest of the world is not buying the MSM crap/indoctrination/propaganda about gold (or silver) and that truly pisses off the bullion bank manipulators who are not only rigging the etf market but also certain bell weather stocks like SLW, HL and UXG.   My advice:  be a long term (>3 year) physical investor and not a trader.  Hold off on the miners until the physical starts to explode.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Well I do like the fact that gold stocks have come under pressure even though the correction bottomed somewhere around $1480. Gold stocks will have to reflect this eventually. 

  • Pat

    I really like this format.  It gives me the chance to see the comments to your articles, the great majority of which are food for thought.  Thanks again for doing what you do.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Thanks Pat!

  • Darrell_spencer

    Hey Moses:
    Father Ted just sent out this blog, His title:  Brainy Optimism and Realism about the Future
    You can read it here:
     
     http://frted.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/brainy-optimism-and-realism-about-the-future/
     Darrell

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Interesting article. Thanks for sending it along. 

  • http://etf.typepad.com/blog/ Stocktimer

    For more great advise check the blog at

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  • Dennis

    Hello Moses

    Thanks for an excellent well thought out commentary, not just today,ut consistently.  I would like your thoughts on the recent divergence between miners ‘s stocks and gold prices.  What’s causing this?.  It would seem that this portends a big  rise in say GDX to restore parity.  Do you agree?  What’s a reasonable time frame?

    Dennis

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hey Dennis,

      The divergence is a little baffling, but these kind of things happen in markets. Gold stocks are cheap relative to the metal, and I definitely would be adding here, although I think you might have to wait 6 months or so for things to restored back to normal. 

      Moses

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