Greece has 46 Hours to Exit Euro

Reports are surfacing that Greece is going to exit the Euro imminently. We are now witnessing things that were deemed to be “impossible”, “politically unviable”, or slightly “conspiratorial.” As I said many times before, volatility is going to return the second half of this year. This is only the beginning.

Global markets should be pretty volatile, especially with short interest so high in places like Asia. The threat here is that civil unrest spreads throughout Europe, causing a run on banks (which is already beginning), and a domino effect where more countries leave the Euro. I’ve stated many times that the Euro is a fundamentally flawed currency that was not well-conceived from the start. Now we are seeing the unraveling.

There is the real potential for the dollar and Treasuries to spike here. Unlike most gold bulls, I’ve been consistently warning that the dollar and U.S. Treasuries would receive capital flows first once a Eurozone collapse took place. But it is only a short-term harbor for the storm that is coming straight to our shores within 5 years.

We are quickly approaching one of those times when the men are separated from the boys. Investment opportunities on the long and short side are opening up in a way I haven’t seen in years. I’ll be discussing this further in my newsletter and in future posts.

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  • lidya

    When dolar spikes,  on the contrary gold  falls sharp,  right ?  Is it good time to invest in gold or wait till euro collapse will complete.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      It is a good time to invest in gold if you are looking long-term and if you are concerned about price. But we are probably going a little lower.

  • http://www.learcapital.com/exactprice haljett

    The world is definitely getting more and more interesting by the moment. If this happens like you suspect it could give a real good buying opportunity for physical gold and silver. 

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Yes sometime between now and the beginning of 2013 there should be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy. I’ve felt this way for awhile now, and nothing happening in the world right now is convincing me otherwise. 

  • BarbRelic

    Seems like we still have a lot of people trying to time their purchases—the risk/reward is pretty good right here. Just sayin’…

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I agree 100%. All things being equal, you should be a buyer of gold, and specifically gold shares. 

  • Operateur1

    Well, I have been long Treasuries/Bonds for years , really years…  And it has been very good.  I may be wrong or I may be ‘stupid’.  But so far, nothing has been better for me so far.  And this for years…

    So I may not agree with you here and I do not think Gold is the ‘best’ investment and I do not believe it will be (at least for me) soon.  I have based all my strategies on facts/figures and so far, Gold owner are being killed and are deeply suffering.

    Gold will go lower (I believe) – My view is either cash or bonds (not the short term ones) or even better a good ETF.  Thanks for your articles in any case.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I applaud you on your investment in bonds, but you must understand bonds have been in a bull market for 30 years now, and the end is near. Our debt is now over 100% of GDP, and this doesn’t even account for private debt, which is much larger than public debt. Also, we are already seeing the sovereign debt bubble popping in Europe. Fundamentally, the U.S. is no different from Europe: we have the same demographic problems and the same bloated public sector problems.

      I would find fault in your argument that gold investors are getting “killed.” Yes if you assume that people bought at the very top, then they are getting killed. But a lot of us got in at below $1,000, and we are doing just fine.

      The issue is not what the returns of gold investors and bond investors has been the last 6 months; it’s what the returns will be in the next 5 years. And given the facts, I’ll take my chances with gold.

  • http://www.gold-investing-info.com/ Gold Investor

    I’m not so sure about Greece exiting the Euro. The Greek
    people overwhelmingly support Euro membership, so it really comes down to how
    they vote in the election. If the threat of being kicked out of the Eurozone is
    credible, then they may fall into line.

    I certainly agree with your thoughts about weakness in the
    banking system. The ECB would surely have already acted by now, were the Greek
    issue not hanging around. Once that is settled, I suspect we’ll see printing
    with a vengeance and while the ECB is at it, U.S. CPI is plummeting as well.
    Just what Bernanke was after!

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      It doesn’t really matter what the Greek people want; market forces are already dictating what needs to be done. They don’t want austerity, but they want the Euro, which is via deflation is effectively bringing austerity-like conditions to their country anyway?

      The U.S. people don’t want a bond collapse, but I don’t think the market cares what people think. 

  • http://www.gold-investing-info.com/ Gold Investor

    It looks like the Greek people will fall into line and vote
    for the mainstream parties. In my opinion, re-adopting the Drachma would be a
    total disaster for Greece. Any short-term gain would be more than compensated
    for with even more long-term pain. In the meanwhile, critical reforms that need
    to take place NOW would have been delayed again.

    The Greek people know all this and know German austerity under
    the Euro is a vastly superior option to hyperinflation of the Drachma. They
    tried printing money for years and it failed; it always fails.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I actually believe readopting the Drachma is better for Greece, both long and short-term. There is no real difference between massive deflation and massive inflation, except perhaps that in times of massive deflation debtors get crushed. And in a nation of debtors, this makes inflation a better option.

      Austerity will not work. No country actually follows through with austerity. The only country that did was Romania, and their people suffered deeply for it. Greece should just default, devalue their currency 30-40%, and just start over. There is definitely a misguided notion that since excessive spending caused the problem that austerity will solve it. It’s not that simple.

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