Government Stupidity Now Moving Markets

Gold up $70, the Nasdaq down 4%, the VIX up 20%: these are the effects of government stupidity. Our leaders, most notably President Obama, had a golden opportunity to inspire confidence in Americans by coming together on a debt deal that made sense. Instead, politicians confirmed  they are bungling buffoons that have no clue. This is not a drop in confidence, this is a collapse in confidence. There’s a difference.

That being said, most people think stocks will drop in an environment of collapsing confidence. I know it’s counter-intuitive, but stocks are going to explode because of the flow of capital from bonds to stocks and a general decline in the dollar. Longer term, stocks are basing for a rocket shot move. It’s been in the cards since 1999. You must look at the longer term picture to capture the monster moves; it is the same with stocks as it is with gold.

Gold stocks are bucking the market trend, and we can see a late 2008 to early 2009 situation arising where gold stocks bottom ahead of the market. The divergence between crude oil and gold is extremely bullish for gold equities. Although crude oil and gold are the two classic inflation indicators, they are diverging sharply. Hmm. Maybe gold is a government stupidity hedge, not an inflation hedge?

A word on Treasuries. I know a lot of people thought Treasuries would fall sharply on the news of S&P’s downgrade, but I didn’t. Treasuries have rallied, but this has very little to do with the viability of U.S. debt and more to do with the fact that capital needs to figure things out; there aren’t that many places to park  large amounts of capital. For now, some capital is parking in gold. This is still a trend in its early stages because the “dumb” big money, which includes pension funds, haven’t re-weighted their portfolios away from Treasuries and into gold. It will happen in due time, but not overnight.

The Fed is on deck for tomorrow and it will be hard for Bernanke to wiggle his way out of this one. Only a month after the apparent end of quantitative easing, the weakness of our economy is obvious. There will be helicopter drops. There will be quantitative easing. As I’ve consistently said, people were getting way too complacent. Most economic forecasters- including gold permabears, deflationists, and the “green shoots” crowd- have lost their credibility. It will soon be time for U.S. bond permabulls to lose theirs too.

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  • Angie

    Hi Moses

    You’re right on about not worrying about the treasurey price/mortgage interest.  My husband and I bought a house 3 months ago with 4.875% interest rate and now evaluating to refi.  Rate for 30-year fixed stands at 4.375% as of today with the treasury market going up driving down yield. Our mortgage broker recommended waiting to see if the interest drops to 4.25%.
    Is mortgage interest almost directly related to treasury bond price?  From reading your blog, seems like Bernenke has to annouce another round of QE3 or else stock market will drop further. But if QE3 is coming, stock market may rally, and will treasurey/bond price drops? QE3 means more bond buying so should that drive bond price further up and driving down yield (mortgage interest)?

    I guess my question is: should I be not so greedy and take 4.375% or wait to see if treasury goes up even further and drive rate down to 4.25%.  I remember you forecast treasury will be topping soon.  thanks!

    Angie

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hi Angie,

      I would take any rate below 5% because that is just a steal. Treasuries are in the process of topping and you need these kind of spike moves to build energy for the downside. After 2 rounds of quantitative easing where rates went down, I think the consensus will be even lower rates. Add to that general economic weakness and renewed fears of deflation, and I think it’s fair to say there will be maximum pain for U.S. bondholders when a reversal comes. 

      Moses

      • Angie

        Hi Moses

        You seemed so confident about QE3 and I knew you were very confident about QE2 last summer and it did come.  Is it b/c the gov. cannot just let the equity market suffer and even if it’s bad for the US dollar they’ll just have to keep on inflating everything else and devalue dollars?  Lots of commentary articles talk about possibility of QE3, or not.  And FED gets criticized heavily…but do you think in this case…this is the only tool they’ve got and that’s what will happen?

        Also many articles compare the 2007/2008 recession crash with this one we’re in right now.  Do you see the possibility of that?  Market seems to have dropped a lot and I cannot imagine being “worse” than the 2008/2009 crash.  What are your thoughts on that? likeilihood of another recession?

        thanks,
        Angie

        • http://www.thebsidetothetruth.com Colton Lindsay

          another recession?  the recession is just heating up form 2008.  hahahahahahaha

        • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

          Well the government can’t let equities fall much further and they also can’t pay off our outstanding debts without inflating away. Absent a change in thinking, yes quantitative easing is the only option for the Fed. 

          I think we’re in a recession already; the average person on the street knows it. As far as another crash, it’s in the real of possibility. I would be buying all the way down though. And on a retest of the 2009 lows I would back up the truck. 

          Moses

          • Angie

            I agree with you Moses.  It’ll be interesting to see what Bernenke says tomorrow.
            I tried to be a short before but it disrupts my sleep.  So I’d rather be a long if there’s good buying opportunity.  Not sure when the market will bottom, but I’m glad that I still have my job and continue to generate cash for potential invesment.  My husband is a very conservative investor who likes to park all his money in savings + CDs…however, letting your money sit in the bank is basically losing it as look at how much USD has dropped against other currencies! Anyways, look forward to more of your post and thoughts tomorrow.

            Angie

          • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

            The stock market is extremely, extremely, extremely oversold. A monster rally should come sometime this week.

            Moses

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