Gold’s Wall of Worry

The recent surge in stock and gold prices following the market pessimism of just a week ago indicates how volatile markets can be. Although many people, especially gold bugs, are predicting a second leg down in stocks worse than what we saw in 2008, I don’t think this is happening. I believe we are simply in the process of creating a short-term bottom in stocks, gold, and commodities. We are experiencing structural inflation due to a weaker dollar that is going to lift all boats.

This is the perfect opportunity to gradually accumulate gold shares, especially since they have severely lagged the gold price. I think it is highly unlikely that gold will fall below $1400-$1450 in this cycle since there is just too much buying pressure due to the crisis in Europe. Gold is now climbing a wall of worry, which is very bullish, since this is the hallmark of bull markets. Name me one bubble that popped while even the strongest supporters of the asset are yawning in boredom. We are in a period that can best be described as the calm before the storm. I will continue to add on the way down.

There are certain market environments that get me very excited. When there is a lot of general confusion over what the future holds, I know that eventually extreme trading opportunities will develop. It appears to me that an extreme rocket launch in gold is the last thing on people’s minds, which is great. If gold were to fall between $1400-$1450, it would be even more unexpected. However, anyone familiar with the gold market knows that it trades like a pendulum: sharp moves to the downside lead to sharp moves to the upside. Back in 2008 when gold collapsed to $700, many were auguring the end of the gold bull market. What happened next was a rocket launch straight to $1000. The same pattern emerged in early 2010 when gold tested its breakout level of $1050 after trading at $1250. What followed was a rally to over $1400 by the end of the year. It is wise to get in the habit of viewing corrections as bullish.

Greece may have passed an austerity package, but it does nothing to solve the structural problems they face. Further spending cuts are only going to spark further civil unrest in Greece. And higher taxes in a downturn? That’s some braindead economic thinking.

A Greece-like debt crisis is quickly approaching in America. If we go about solving the crisis by raising taxes and cutting spending- which means cutting jobs in the public sector- then we will see Americans protest. I have complete faith in the ability of our leaders to destroy our economy, which means I am not selling any gold.  Gold should be trading  at record highs right now based on what’s going on around the world. Either way, gold still has at least one more historic rocket launch in it. Just as you saw in silver, there should be a doubling in price in the shortest time.

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