Gold Rallying- Finally

Gold is now making a “stealth” rally after an extended consolidation. The naysayers have been around for something like a decade, but gold is going nowhere. At the end of the day, gold at $1600+ reflects a lack of confidence in our government. If Obama really did bring the “hope and change” he promised, gold would be trading below $1,000 right now without question.

We are headed straight for a recession, and sooner or later someone needs to take responsibility. I talk to Obama supporters who still blame the weak economy on Bush. This is amazing. Although I agree that the problems Obama faced in 2009 were severe, he could still have implemented sensible economic policies that would spur our economy to grow 1990′s style. But this takes an out-of-the-box way of thinking, and politicians are never open to new ideas until they are forced to listen. In this case, politicians won’t listen until bonds absolutely implode, which I would bet my entire portfolio on.

Right now, the trends based on a weaker dollar are emerging. Earnings are coming in weak, but stocks are rallying. No doubt people are confused, but believe me, their confusion will only grow because stocks are going to rally big-time as unemployment rises. I read recently that something like 10% of Hedge Fund managers are beating the market this year. Even the best and brightest don’t understand what’s going on, and this create tremendous opportunities for those that grasp the situation.

I would be buying gold stocks on every correction. You can pretty much close your eyes and buy gold, commodities, and stocks on corrections- then plan your next vacation. The government is going to screw our economy up in a major way, and there is little doubt in my mind that we will face a 2008-style crisis in the next Presidential cycle. This is your 2005 and 2006. Get prepared, use your common sense, and do the opposite of everyone else.

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  • Angela Young

    You do mention stocks will rally along with gold and commodity. What type of “correction” level will we be looking at with this coming presidential election? Do you still recommend shorting bonds for every opportunity? thanks!

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Bonds I think will rally for another year or so. As for a correction in stocks and gold, they will probably be minor at this point, so any correction should be used as a buying opportunity.

  • Ancien

    Well, I thought you mentioned in your past post that gold does not rally/move on news – humm. Are you sure about that?

    Clearly, if you look on the last move, even to the hours/minutes, the last move where due to the fact QE3 might come i.e. FOMC minutes. So I am slightly ‘confused’ with your statement.

    I have been long bonds for years and I am still long BONDS – it has worked for me so far and I am not ready to give up yet. I have certainly made more money than with gold. It may change though but I still love my bonds. I am NOT complacent but very vigilant.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Well just based on probability, gold (or any asset for that matter) will rise or fall with news a certain percentage of the time. But I’d say that more often that not, the saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” holds true.

      I would be very, very wary of holding bonds right now. The best analogy I can give you is either the real estate market circa 2005 or mortgage backed securities in the same period. Yes you are making money, but you will lose it very quickly. At the very least you should be lightening up on your bond holdings and buying something tangible,

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    (NYSE: SAND ) AND HOLD ON A YEAR FOR THE DIVYS ARE COMING. SILVERSREST ON MONDAY (NYSE NEW PLAY)

  • lidya

    QE3 will not come and gold will go down again…. Unfortunately gold is not rallying…

    • GoldFTW

      How’d that work out for you? Hahaha

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