Gold: Deja Vu All Over Again?

June 28, 2013 2:12 pm 17 comments

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I live for these moments.

When I start getting spam comments that indicate fear (for gold investors) and schadenfreude (for gold permabears), I know that some kind of important turning point is near. These sort of heuristics make my life easier. My roommates can attest that when gold drops in price, my reaction is to do a really quick dance, followed by an enthusiastic cheer. Then I  go back to living my life. People judge others by themselves, so they assume I am feeling the same panic they are. Well what makes me able to buy when no one else has eyes to see is that I don’t get emotional to the point of self-destruction about these things. I connect the dots, but I also know what the hell a dot is in the first place.

What you are witnessing now is gold permabears taking center stage with their impressive display of sophistry. They talk about the end of QE, or the U.S. economy improving, or this and that to explain gold’s fall. They display their ignorance every time they speak. QE is significant to the extent that it drives perception in the short run. The primary driver of gold was not the Fed’s direct purchase of bonds. In the first place, whose bonds were they buying? If it is a foreigner’s bonds, then guess what? We just exported inflation. What about real estate purchases of foreign investors that increase the money supply? Does that not create inflation? What about the fact that Europe is deflating to oblivion? Does that not create deflation in gold? What about the mandatory dollar rally that is occurring as we speak? Deflationary for gold, yes? There are countless countervailing forces at work here, and QE is about #14 on the list of importance. I’m not even joking; this is far more nuanced than people realize.

Whatever you want to call it: guts, chutzpah, brashness- not many people have it at these turning points. Gold is most likely headed lower, but 3 years from now there will be a lot of pain and tears because people didn’t buy at $1200. This is starting to look a lot like 2011 in domestic real estate when it was the most obvious bottom I’ve seen in my life, yet I could get only about 3% of people to agree with me. Well those people doubled their money in 2 years. This is the exact same thing, and in 3 years you’ll see why some investors always make money and others should just hide their money under the bed.

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  • Peter Geery

    You could have started your comment by being a little bit more honest and saying: “I was wrong about investing in gold all this time, I bought too early …” It was obvious that gold was overbought at 1900 and that it needed a correction; however, you kept telling your readers to buy at all levels when even buying SPY at those times would have been a better investment. If you had bought SPY and sold now, you could be investing those gains in gold at current levels (which imho is still too high to buy) and you’d have a better ROI. I think it is better to wait for a solid bottom in gold and signs of a turn around before buying gold, imho.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I was probably in the handful of people insanely bullish on stocks. Gold, again, is something that should be bought on corrections for most people. But there is a nuance to all this that I can’t really update on every single day except to my newsletter subscribers, who by and large know I’ve had a bearish/neutral stance for a very long time.

      As for myself any serious reader knows I have been all-in on real estate. Gold as far as I personally am concerned is not a buy yet. But the average person should really be buying.

  • Justin Greger

    Hey moses, I was right about deflation and gold. Please admit that gold was a pumped bubble and it’s going to take awhile to DEFLATE. Don’t catch a falling sword. Wait till had bottomed. Check the charts. Numbers don’t lie only our govt and ben b does…lol

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Gold is not a bubble by any objective measure. That’s still a confusing notion to me unless you can enlighten me about how a 40% correction isn’t normal in bull markets.

  • moark

    Hi Moses, You have been asking to buy gold since 2011 but after your suggestion gold has dropped about %40. Do you still think that you have done good job?

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I said stocks, gold, and real estate. If you did any combination of those 3 you are doing fine. For my other newsletter I’ve been pretty consistent saying hold on gold. Your criticism is similar to holding me to my real estate call all the way into 2020, long after I will have exited the market,

      For people who need hand-holding, gold is always a buy (in a bull market) because by definition they don’t have the ability to buy bottoms. They only have the ability to panic and bottoms and go overboard at tops. It’s best for them to just buy corrections and forget about it. For people who can keep their cool, that’s when certain price points and timing comes into play. Everyone is not at the same level.

  • moark

    Hi Moses, could you give only one reason why gold will increase ? thanks

  • moark

    End of Moses !!! You do not know anything about economy and gold. Look at the gold price and shut down the blog.

  • moark

    why did you run away ? Won’t gold skyrocket to the moon ?

  • moark

    What you have said ” A monster rally unlike anything we’ve seen so far should be coming in 2012 or 2013.” ha… ha…..

  • moark

    where are you moses, gold is skyrocketing as you predicted but to south not noth :) ha ha ha….

  • moark

    you moses you’re coward…. ha ha ha…..

  • moark

    ha ha ha ha

  • http://www.stocktipsnetwork.com/ Jamie

    I expect Gold prices to drop further closer to USD$800 within the next 24 months. Firstly, China and India are not buying more gold. India need to contain the purchase of gold in order to contain depreciation of their currency. Whereas China economy is facing its fair share of challenge and the Chinese are looking to diversify their investment. Thirdly, the economy climate in North America is improving. Fourth, funds are flowing back to North America from Emerging Markets.

  • derng

    where are you moses, where were you hidden, ha ha ha…

  • norma fay

    You make some great points. History has definitely shown us why it
    is a wise decision to invest
    in gold
    . While the value can fluctuate, over time it always increases
    in value. It is a safer investment than most other options. I have been using
    APMEX to buy precious metals for year. They have always offered good prices and
    have been trustworthy.

  • derng

    gold is good investment ha ha ha ……

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