Gold at Inflection Point

I am really enjoying the volatility in markets, which I believe will lead to a short-term bottom in gold, silver, and stocks, and a long term top in U.S. Treasuries.

The great thing about markets is that you are constantly receiving information. Last week I put out a feeler bet in gold. What followed was a pretty decent rally that had gold testing its all-time highs. This morning we experienced a mini sell-off. If you bought when I did and sold this morning, you would be just about even; however, you now have a little more information to act upon.

We saw how negatively markets reacted to Bernanke’s speech, which was sufficient enough for me to lighten up a bit. It appears there’s a better chance we will see a spike move to new lows in gold, and perhaps stocks. As far as I’m concerned, this would be the absolute dream scenario. I love seeing red in gold stocks. I love it that gold has barely budged in June, yet many of the gold stocks are down 15-20%. In general, you should have your hand hovering over the buy button. This obviously doesn’t mean you should buy day after day into a correction, but it does mean you should be leaning bullish as gold stocks sell off.

I know that my perspective of being insanely bullish on gold but loving corrections more than the biggest gold bear is rare. I’ve noticed that only about 10% of gold investors think this way. Most get caught up in where their account is on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. The reason I rarely buy options in gold or silver is that it skews your thinking. It makes you impatient. It makes you double down when you should be standing pat or selling to salvage capital when you should be buying. I don’t want a quickly approaching expiration date to dictate my thinking.

I can tell you with 99% assurance that I will be a buyer of gold if we tag the 200-day. I can also tell you with 99% assurance that I will be extra patient if we breach the 50-day. If the 50-day holds, I will be more inclined to add slowly and build a position. This is not a market you can plan ahead for and be rigid about; you must be able to take what the market gives you and adjust.

The extended correction we are experiencing is a gift that keeps on giving. People tend to get impatient in these corrections, but gold is giving you the opportunity to hop on board with as much capital as you’d like before liftoff. Even in stocks, sentiment should get pretty bearish soon enough; this will be your signal to buy. The dollar may rally to new highs while the Euro zone collapses from within; this will be your signal to sell. Just understand that in extremes, opportunities arise. Try not to get fixated on only one scenario playing out. Gold may shoot straight to $1600 from here or it can fall to $1400. No one knows. But you can invest intelligently and ensure that you maximize your profits in either scenario.

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  • http://www.learcapital.com/exactprice haljett

    I’m glad you brought up the options expiration. My feeling on the action yesterday and today is that it is a result of that coming up on Monday. Typical pattern I’ve seen since I’ve been paying closer attention.

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      That’s true- things tend to get wacky around option expiration. 

  • rhae

    I do not chase gold around much. And look at it mainly as insurance  Most held in self directed IRA accounts.
    I like to keep an eye on the general trend with Privateer P&F charts. easy enough to see where the long term trend lines are…  http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Looks like an uptrend to me =)

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    Look at the long term….which isn’t that long in this market….Wherever you buy between $1400 and $1600, gold is going above $2000.

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