Fakeout Moves Before the Gold Rally

I look for fakeout moves. For example, following the “fat finger” waterfall crash last year, there was a major rally. The spike rally in silver earlier in the year was a fakeout move in reverse. Sustained rallies and sell-offs tend to last longer than people expect, but eventually the opposite trend emerges. The market gets just enough people bulled or beared up before a suckerpunch move. This is what makes markets fun; you have to be balanced at all times.

It’s hard for me to explain, but remember in 2008 when the whole financial system malfunctioned and gold collapsed to $700? Gold was the most obvious buy, yet it fell. The debt crisis in Europe is now obvious to everyone. But while everyone else is saying gold should be shooting to the moon, I remain cautious. I am still expecting a big correction. When everyone is a doubter of gold, that will be the time to buy.

The ECB is coordinating with the Fed to get dollars into the banking system. This will help banks service loans denominated in dollars in the short term, I don’t dispute this. But these are stop-gap measures that do nothing to change the long term picture in Europe. The unemployment rate in Spain for people under the age of 25 is over 40%. People are losing skills as the long-term unemployment crisis drags on and this is a disaster in the making.

The rich are getting richer, but this is not because of some global conspiracy; it is because of the ongoing shift in the global economy. Workers need to be much more skilled than they were in the past, and the education systems of the world have yet to catch up to this market dynamic. For people about to go to college, please stay away from fields like law and accounting. And please don’t get your MBA unless you have some kind of passion for doing case study after case study. You’ll thank me later. Read widely and expand your knowledge; this will give you the kind of versatility that is cherished in the marketplace.

It’s important to understand that even though the American economy is slowing, there is a ton of capital out there. An explosion in movable assets is coming because there just isn’t any confidence in government. This isn’t some conspiracy theory- I’m just explaining human nature. Why would people buy real estate in overpriced markets when they know governments are broke and will raise property taxes? Is it not wiser to buy gold, artwork, or even stocks? When the going gets tough, people want to unload their assets as quickly as possible. This is an advantage that stocks provide.

I continue to be amazed at the stupidity of our leaders. A huge crisis awaits us, but probably after a temporary calm in markets. At $1500-$1600 gold, I will be very aggressive because a tripling of gold prices from those levels is not out of the question. This is a level of fiscal mismanagement on a global scale that I have yet to find a precedent for in history. Even the sovereign debt crisis during the Great Depression pales in comparison. Connect the dots, it’s not that hard.

Share this article
  • Robert

    why do you think gold will correct down to the $1500-$1600 range ? The demand for physical gold is out of control .Except for us gold bugs who are always thinking gold should be higher( probably would be if not for all the manipulation and recent central bank intervention )most people feel gold is in a bubble  Just turn on those stupid cable shows and all they do is interview people who slam gold–I have read many times that its like less than 1% of mutual funds and investment companies have invested in gold or gold companies–
    With expirations coming up at the end of the month you might see gold go below 1700, but that may be the best you will get-
    anyway i think you do a great job–just don’t agree with your assessment on gold–only time will tell

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      A great deal of the money in gold right now is speculative, which is why the down days tend to be more extreme. There is always new supply coming on the market so demand alone isn’t enough to drive prices higher. Plus there is short-term manipulation of prices. I don’t think it’s time yet, gold needs a breather. Gold expressed in dollars should come under pressure as the dollar rises. 

  • Angie

    Hi Moses,

    Just some though about shorting treasury.  Do you see the recent upward spike of Treasury as another shorting opportunities? Or should we continue to wait a bit more?


    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      Hi Angie,

      I think all rallies in Treasuries are selling opportunities.


  • Pingback: Gold to Retest Highs? @ExpectedReturns « Hanuman Capital

  • http://www.buysilvercoins.org.uk/ Buy Silver

    Here we are 5 months later and gold is still hovering around the $1700 range despite Greece’s managed default. I don’t understand why gold isn’t over $2000 at least.

  • http://www.siomunzus74.com Andrew A. Sailer

    I simply want to mention I’m very new to weblog and seriously savored this web-site. Probably I’m likely to bookmark your blog . You absolutely have impressive articles. Bless you for sharing your web-site.

  • http://www.elokings.net/ viagra

    750754 703615IE nonetheless is the market chief and a huge element of people will pass over your excellent writing because of this problem. 177517

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Sade Taboada

    this site is cool!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • https://www.facebook.com/BuyTwitterFollowersReal Buy Twitter Followers

    974111 479181Hi there, i just thought i would publish and now let you know your internet sites style is genuinely smudged within the K-Melon browser. Anyhow sustain inside the quite very good function. 4796

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Dee Wadleigh

    good blog! this site is cool!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://www.sexo-cam.com/9/corrida-en-la-boca-de-suhaila/ full post

    Good post. I absolutely love this site. Stick with it!

  • http://www.hot-porn-site.com/13/claudia-shotz-ensenando-el-culo-por-barcelona/ follow this post

    The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

  • Pingback: Weight Loss

  • http://www.fistinginactiontgp.com/9/follando-a-una-zorra-del-gimnasio/ go to link

    I’m pretty pleased to find this page. I need to to thank you for ones time for this particularly wonderful read!! I definitely liked every part of it and I have you bookmarked to see new things in your blog.

  • http://alubondeu.info/bondeu/invest-in-shares-optimize-your-proceeds/ penny stock egghead

    the ruels of life does it express that, using this seed equaling 756395837 in that laptop or computer, 1st random # is going to be this?.

  • http://daytonaattorney.org/dollar-inventory-fx-trading-for-novices-like-me-and-you-just/ penny stock egghead

    Great goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just too fantastic. I really like what you’ve acquired here, really like what you’re stating and the way in which you say it. You make it entertaining and you still care for to keep it smart. I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is actually a tremendous web site.

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Arlinda Beger

    this site is cool!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://www.plumppornstars.com link

    Can I just say what a comfort to uncover a person that genuinely understands what they’re discussing on the web. You certainly realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More and more people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you are not more popular because you surely possess the gift.

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Dee Wadleigh

    this site is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ Arlinda Beger

    this site is cooooooaaaoooooooooooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://tokumei10.blogspot.jp/ thx read

  • http://tresym3dia.net/ sex

    Thanks for one more insightful blog site. In which more might I get which sort of info printed in this sort of best technique? I own a endeavor that we’re basically at this moment managing upon, so i have been on the structure out there with regard to like information.

  • http://www.all4scrapebox.com Auto approve list

    Very nice design and excellent subject material, hardly anything else we want :D.

  • http://tiny.cc/sugaring Johnson Graboski

    Should you tea tree oil while in the bikini spot…be sure it’s diluted in a base oil. It can lead to extreme burning on that sensitive area.

  • http://tiny.cc/sugaring Waxing

    You’ll be able to also apply lydocaine gel (any drugstore) about 10 minutes prior to and let it dry NO Pain!!

  • http://tiny.cc/sugaringzuerich Waxing Zurich

    I attempted this today and have to admit I was a somewhat skeptical about the total matter. I made the primary recipe with lemon juice, sugar and water and also the cotton strips were just previous sheets that I cut up. They ended up most likely two wide due to the fact I acquired exhausted of ripping small strips. I found the first two rips didn’t go so very well they have been kinda patchy however the rest went great with the majority of the hair coming off. Yes this does harm But not as terrible as waxing. I do regular waxing so I am kinda employed to it. I ended up having to redo a spot here and there so maybe I need more ripping practice but even so I will proceed because tada I just cancelled a $25 leg waxing appointment! My legs come to feel soft and smooth and I will not see any difference from waxing. This really is my initial time so I’ll watch how extended it takes for that hair to grow back. But even though it comes back sooner than it does for waxing I’m likely to remain with it. Oh and so far as hand washing the material strips overlook that! I’m throwing mine inside the washing machine as a substitute.

  • http://url.gen.in/overthecounterstdtest95934 home std test kit

    Your greatest problem this Halloween will be keeping an over-excitable kid relaxed. Don’t neglect to use your instinct as well, to arrive nearer to the concealed truths current within the playing cards.

  • http://ow.ly/yav1q Haarentfernung Zürich

    Hello! My sister is definitely an esthetician as well as a couple of years in the past taught me the appropriate approach to wax myself or another person. For christmas she purchased me wax and the many other necessary products to go in addition to it (wax remover, wax strips, popsicle sticks, and so on.). If I recall correctly you happen to be suppose to apply it inside the route the hair grows, spot the strip more than leading, rub the strip for a number of seconds to make friction, then pull the strip off like you’d probably a bandaid (comparatively rapid!) and even though performing so, hold the skin surrounding the location taut. The hair must be fairly prolonged in order for it to get eliminated, i would say nearly a 1/2 at least if it might increase that extended. I’m confident you will need to do relatively precisely the same together with the sugaring hair elimination listed over in order for it to truly work. Make sure to cleanse the region appropriately beforehand, in conjunction with what ever equipment you’re utilizing, including your hands, to guard from bacteria. I’ve in no way heard of this prior to (it sounds wonderful and I can’t wait to attempt it!), so I could surely be partially if not totally wrong about how to get it done… Just figured i’d publish some recommendations for those of you that did not achieve the full benefit of doing this! Please accurate me if i’m incorrect in any respect so I’ll understand how to correctly do that also (:

  • http://www.canaldejogos.com.br/profile/riallardyc Yolonda Eddlemon

    Keep up the fantastic piece of work, I read few posts on this site and I conceive that your weblog is real interesting and holds lots of good info .

  • http://www.tuxmachines.org/node/66712 Shayne Rameriz

    hey there and thank you for your data – I’ve undoubtedly picked up anything new from proper here. I did nevertheless expertise some technical points making use of this internet site, as I experienced to reload the site numerous times previous to I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but slow loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could damage your quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I’m adding this RSS to my email and can appear out for a great deal more of your respective intriguing content. Ensure which you update this again extremely soon..

  • http://puregarciniacambogia.GENERICVIAGRAPHARMCA.COM best garcinia cambogia

    I’m 29, and single – you look like my type of partner – whats your facebook address?

  • Pingback: Who is Urazov Nuray

  • http://www.cbsexe.com made a post

    Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

  • http://led.lamp.capital/ LED Lamp

    Hmm i hope you don’t get offended with this question, but how much does a site like yours earn?

  • http://flaker.pl/RobertBedkowski strona domowa

    An outstanding share! I have emphatically forwarded this on a isolated who had been conducting a insufficiently research on this. As well as he in information bought me dinner simply since I found it for him… lol. Hence let me reword this…. Show appreciation YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending approximately epoch to natter in relation to this matter now resting on your internet site.

  • http://www.miniurl.nu/athomestdtest38691 std testing at home

    Appreciate being told things about your self and possible future happenings. Every component, in flip stands for different elements of energies, thoughts, feelings and occasions. Do not be too careful or impulsive this week.

  • Pingback: Bulls Eye Aurora

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH5koAPe2SI funny commercials 2014

    check beneath, are some entirely unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use

  • http://arthritisreduction.com/node/327615 Karyl Jabbie

    I am not actually superb with English but I line up this really easygoing to recognize .

  • http://anonsell.pl/announcements/show/2227/gotowe-spolki-z-oo-za-2990-pln?preview=true kupno spółki z o.o

    Great content stuff and abundant layout. Your blog deserves each one of the helpful opinion it has been getting.

  • Pingback: iherb coupon

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JBc001nXY painful fail

    although web-sites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are truly really worth a go by, so possess a look

  • http://kuponkodusitesi.tumblr.com/post/89087466295/kuponkodumarkalar lcw

    Wow, can i share it on social media ?

  • Pingback: iherb coupon

  • http://www.gettinghitchedphotography.com/ Click For More Info

    tiffany jewelry for cheapincludes several earrings on your wedding party; marriage bracelets, pendants, sounds for example. Wedding costume outfit jewellery is actually crafts in a very huge selection of resources plus colouring pairing; jewelry plated or silver precious metal plated by using jewelry and flagstones,http://www.timedancercorporation.com/,inside colour conjunction which unfortunately introducing a contented great beauty back.

  • http://www.supersocial.pl/index.php?do=/blog/284359/those-people-ray-ban-contacts-are-made-of-many-materials/ ray ban reading sunglasses

    Tiffany Bracelets readily available.In which case you can certainly decide on higher only one you might be ready that will for getting. Tiffany includes stimulated many to put to your manual because of Expensive jewelry constructing styles out of ancient making? Tiffany silver plate necklaces a good superb internet business.Expensive jewelry stimulated just by Tiffany visions to scan a good luxury and magnificent around the honest Tiffany pieces,find more about here

  • http://LesbianCams.org/ webcam lesbians

    I’m also commenting to make you know what a magnificent discovery my cousin’s girl had reading your webblog. She learned a superb number of pieces, which include how it really is like to possess an incredible teaching heart to let quite a few people today just know exactly some complex concerns. You definitely exceeded my expectations. Many thanks for supplying those informative, dependable, explanatory as well as distinctive recommendations about the topic to Sandra.

  • Pingback: Communication Skills

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMl6_0jPaGk&hd=1 keratosis pilaris coconut oil

    Keratosis Pilaris (KP) is often a anatomical pores and skin problem of which affects 40% from the planet’s inhabitants. KP presents itself to be a group connected with little crimson protrusions which might be in most cases on the upper section of the actual arms, upper thighs, bottom as well as a lesser amount of generally about the face, which is often wrongly diagnosed for zits. Though there is no treat intended for KP, you will discover strategies to address it. We’ll show you just how.

  • http://muzwiki.com/Subway_Surfers_Hack_No_Survey subway surfer score generator

    I every time spent my half an hour to read this webpage’s posts every day along with a cup
    of coffee.

  • http://CamGirls.ws/ cam girls

    my father have lots and a great deal of collectible coins that are pretty precious and rare,,

  • http://xunmeng.org Investigate THIS Site

    cheap tiffany and co jewelleryincludes a variety of jewelry on your wedding ceremony; wedding planning jewelry, anklet bracelets, groups . . .. Bridal fancy dress bracelets is definitely childrens crafts in any wide selection of material not to mention colour mix; gold plated and gold plated along with diamonds and also rocks,tiffany jewellery on sale,in a different color choice combination of which putting in a cheerful great beauty for your needs.

  • http://www.whereto-buygarciniacambogia.com where to buy pure garcinia cambogia in stores

    I’m impressed, I should say. Actually seldom do I encounter a weblog that’s the two educative and entertaining, and permit me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head. Your thought is remarkable the situation is some thing that not adequate people are speaking intelligently about. I am incredibly pleased that I stumbled across this in my search for some thing relating to this.

  • http://BustyCam.net/ busty cam girls

    because i have been running my personal busines at residence, i’ve always been monitoring business news over the internet and cable television.

  • http://forum.omsspa.com/forum/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=128300 how to grow taller

    bookmarked!!, I really like your web site!

  • Pingback: Roofing companies Colorado Springs

  • http://tecnodialogo.com.br/talento/blog/view/81437/what-you-need-to-know-about-using-wordpress Filiberto Potucek

    Hey there! Nice stuff, please keep me posted when you post something like this!

  • Pingback: iherb coupon code

  • http://aikiweb.co.uk/ ralph lauren on sale

    cheap tiffany jewelry may just be clearly described as Bracelets made from affordable materials and then representation or possibly semiprecious gravel. Further, it referred to as fashion earrings, useless jewellery and it also thought is fashioned as being a low cost and economical with regard to repurchasing in order to healthy a wonderful in addition to cutting edge clothing form.they’ve been mainly manufactured from reasonably priced ,discounted tiffany jewelry,diamonds similar to rhinestones make on alloy, components gold plated brass

  • http://namiotyweselne.e-trust.pl namiotyaluminiowe

    Thanks for the blog post.Really thank you! Much obliged.

  • http://medzed.ru/user/Annettesispl/ jakikantor

    That is the proper weblog for anyone who wants to search out out about this topic. You understand so much its almost onerous to argue with you (not that I actually would want…HaHa). You undoubtedly put a new spin on a subject thats been written about for years. Nice stuff, simply nice!

  • http://www.biz-for-all.ru/user/Annettesisssig/ jakikantor

    Thanks for the helpful post. It is also my belief that mesothelioma cancer has an extremely long latency period, which means that signs and symptoms of the disease would possibly not emerge till 30 to 50 years after the first exposure to asbestos fiber. Pleural mesothelioma, that is the most common sort and influences the area within the lungs, could potentially cause shortness of breath, chest pains, and a persistent cough, which may bring about coughing up bloodstream.

  • http://www.wilsonssaddlery.co.uk/replica-tiffany-co-jewelry.php Homepage

    red may be the mark colour of common and stylish replica tiffany expensive jewelry. There does exist lots of an occasion or possibly party that really needs an extraordinary type of replica tiffany diamond jewelry while you are needing to obtain a component of special trend replica tiffany rings which will reveals suits you as well as styles. Though, when you invest in in the local retailer, you see the same kind of element of just about every keep.

  • http://profeo.pl/daniel-kozminski sklepy

    This is not

  • Pingback: iherb coupon

  • http://cisningususkataloginus.eu/jakikantor.html ranking kantorow online

    Generally I don’t read post on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very pressured me to take a look at and do it! Your writing taste has been surprised me. Thank you, quite nice post.

  • http://www.fortinetthai.com/html//modules.php/modules.php?name=Your_Account&op=userinfo&username=GayMcgove Marci Duft

    Thanks for the sensible critique. Me and my neighbor were just preparing to do a little research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more from this post. I am very glad to see such excellent info being shared freely out there.

  • Pingback: plumber in rock hill south carolino

  • Pingback: piano lessons baton rouge

  • http://www.interiordezine.co.uk/ray-ban-c-726.html polarized sunglasses ray ban

    Coloring takes on a major part inside a prom dress over the unique night. It needs to match skin coloration. With the complementing photo, you may showcase a person’s determine by means of slimming shades for instance wine beverage, profound bleak, woodland green, night time pink, burgundy, chocolate, as well as simple colours of beige, black, dreary, sterling silver, precious metal, along with myope. Prom dresses usually are professional social gathering outfits, prolonged along with softly amazing. long prom dresses can be using the style with the occasion and also they can try to be regular golf ball gowns. There is no typical solution to determine a “best prom dress”. It will be the a bed that tends to make you feel attractive and provide the ideal image-sweet, harmless, captivating or just gorgeous. Typically the most popular prom dresses will be satin, sequined, old-fashioned styles, the small black costume, your irregular in shape sprained ankle injury attire, the actual hanky sprained ankle treatment along with the typical Cinderella soccer ball outfit.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIzzC-nbX2k top funny commercials

    we came across a cool web page which you could enjoy. Take a look for those who want

  • http://www.mundoknet.com/seguidores-do-instagram/ comprar

    proper on our supermarket, i can buy some cheap protein bars which i always consume when undertaking workouts”

  • http://awb4.com/shipping2.asp Loretta Stanis

    Thanks for your strategies. One thing really noticed is the fact that banks as well as financial institutions really know the spending habits of consumers while also understand that many people max out and about their own credit cards around the breaks. They prudently take advantage of this fact and commence flooding the inbox and also snail-mail box using hundreds of Zero APR card offers immediately after the holiday season closes. Knowing that for anyone who is like 98% of the American public, you’ll rush at the chance to consolidate personal credit card debt and move balances towards 0 rate credit cards.

  • Pingback: Regional trucking jobs

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDK8defsz-I Des Moines IA For Sale By Owner

    pretty very good post, i definitely adore this incredible internet site, persist with it

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hRi9rP-d7Y what is a rollover

    Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be serious about exchanging links or possibly guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa? My web page addresses a lot of the identical subjects as yours and I believe we could considerably advantage from one another. If you’re interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I appear forward to hearing from you! Excellent weblog from the way!

  • http://www.smkn32-jkt.sch.id/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=504034 ekspres do kawy

    Thank you for another informative web site. Where else could I get that kind of info written in such a perfect way? I’ve a project that I am just now working on, and I have been on the look out for such info.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dtp-0MmQVNE big trucks

    Here are a number of the sites we suggest for our visitors

  • http://www.irishomesolutions.com/admin/images/ajaxl.php breitling replica watches
  • http://www.acai.com.sg/where-to-buy-acai-berry-singapore-60-capsule-bottle.html where to buy acai berry singapore

    i prefer to dress up my babies that is definitely why i normally buy incredibly stylish baby clothing”

  • http://www.tamariart.co.uk/tiffany-tag-necklaces.php Click here

    Shade represents a primary function inside a prom dress while in the particular nighttime. It will match your epidermis tone. For this complementing impression, you are able to showcase a person’s physique through the use of weight loss shades like wine beverages, heavy bleak, forest green, night glowing blue, wine red, hot chocolate, as well as natural shades regarding light tan, black, dull, magic, gold, in addition to taupe. Prom dresses are often conventional social gathering clothes, long along with smoothly spectacular. orange prom dresses may very well be based on the design from the occasion or maybe they could you need to be regular basketball gowns. There isn’t any typical way to determine the particular “best party dress”. It is the one which could make you sense lovely and create the proper image-sweet, harmless, hot or just gorgeous. The most common prom dresses are satin, sequined, traditional clothing, the miscroscopic black costume, the irregular sprained ankle injury costume, the particular hanky ankle rehab ebook along with the classic Cinderella ball wedding gown.