Extremes in Assets Developing

If you haven’t noticed, I love trading in extremes. It really doesn’t matter what the asset is or if we are talking about extreme bearishness or extreme bullishness. Extremes are when you can buy or sell assets at favorable levels because people lose their senses.

Extremes are great because you can see them developing from a mile away. Usually extreme asset moves culminate in either a spike low or a spike high. It is at these spike lows and highs that the smart money gets positioned in a big way. In the current economic environment, I am seeing extreme moves developing in U.S. government bonds and real estate. The 10-year just dropped below 3% today, and I am very close to going short. Meanwhile, the surge in negative sentiment following the confirmed double dip in housing is pretty extreme.

Hate for Real Estate?

Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk has recently written that he is seeing the beginnings of a shift in sentiment in real estate towards hate. He’s experienced a couple of major downward cycles in real estate, and bottoms in his opinion are usually characterized by this “hate” of real estate. While he did note that the “hate” could last for years, this is just something to keep in mind.

I get the sense that you will be hearing a lot more about housing in the months ahead as sentiment sours. So many more people are now making the call that it will be years and years before housing mounts a recovery. In fact, according to Trulia.com, only 15% of American adults now think housing will recovery in 2012- down 44% from November 2010. This is a market that people are quickly losing faith in.

Real Estate Priced in Gold

Assets should be judged based on relative valuation- this provides perspective. A lot of gold bugs, including myself, use the Dow/Gold ratio as an indicator of relative valuation. In theory, the same type of comparison can be made between real estate and gold. If you chart the data, you’ll find that the home price/gold ratio has fallen quite dramatically the past decade. But people are choosing now to be intensely bearish on real estate? Why not 2000, 2001, or 2002 when the ratio was extreme to the upside?

This particular ratio, in my opinion, doesn’t have a lot further to fall. Since I think gold is going to rise much higher, it stands to reason that real estate will rise as well. 2012 is a very reasonable target for a recovery in prices.

We are entering a period where I believe people will have an unjustified fear of deflation coming from the perceived end of quantitative easing. To me, this is one of those classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” moments. I am patiently watching these trends develop until I feel it is the right time to take the opposite side of the trade.

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  • rhae

    I like extremes, I am more of a trader / chartists. From that point of view everything that happens is reflected in the charts. We know what we think will happen, so just wait for an extreme trigger. Below is a SPY daily renko chart. Like P&F charts there is no time element. So it just does what it does, when ever it gets around to it. Today was a tough day for the bulls, but this chart does not think extreme, yet.   Charts can’t predict the future. For all I know price could zoom back up tomorrow. It always seems to come back full circle to risk management.
    http://screencast.com/t/A4EvWKDAK2E

  • Atwell Mark

    You may well be correct in terms of real estate but picking bottoms can be perilous.  The problems is that people can’t help but compare the current prices to former prices.  The peak price acts as an ‘anchor’ in respect of which all future prices (and in practice value) are compared.  So people think that if they buy a house in Vegas at 60%-70% off peak price they can’t go wrong.  What if a house in Vegas is worth nothing, zero?  It is in the middle of the dessert with no jobs and expensive in terms of oil and electricity and water.  Houses in central Detroit went down more or less relentlessly over time until they did literally become worthless.  What if this is just a fortaste of American property writ large?   Comparing property to gold rather than peak price clearly offers a different view of value but it still assumes an eventual bounceback scenario rather than a relentless drip, drip, drip, decline as has been witnessed in much of the rustbelt.

    • Fab

      You put your finger on the very important point about real estate; location (repeat 2x). I live in the San Fernando Valley in LA, home of Universal Studios, and prices dropped but not that much. In San Francisco, I read that they are already above the former peak. This Case Shiller index doesn’t really reflect that reality. I wouldn’t touch today’s Vegas RE with a 10 foot pole but where I’m it’s not that cheap. 

      • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

        Right.  I believe NYC home prices are something like 60%+ above their 2000 prices. Vegas real estate is at or below 1998 prices. But people are bearish on Vegas real estate? Go figure. If you compare the taxable sales numbers and gaming revenue numbers from 1998 and 2010, this makes no sense. 

    • http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com Moses

      I am well aware of the anchoring bias; in fact I’ve written about it before. As far as homes having no value, that just isn’t true because the land has value as do the appliances and material costs. So it is literally impossible for a house to have no value.

      As for Vegas, I have knowledge of this market since I live here. People compare Vegas to Detroit, but I really don’t understand these comparisons. Gaming revenue is up 7.2% yoy, unemployment is down 12%, hotel occupancy is up 4.8%, and visitor volume is up 5.2%. And for all the talk of people “fleeing” Vegas, the population is also growing. The perception of Vegas just does not match the reality of the situation here. 

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