U.S. Treasuries

Why Stocks Will Rally

Regular readers of this blog know that I like to take reasonable contrarian stances; I don’t go against the crowd for the sake of it.  That being said, I know people are turning bearish on the economy and stocks, especially with the current impasse on the debt ceiling issue. Although I’m bearish on stocks in the short to intermediate term, I’m very bullish long term (5-10 years). Let me briefly explain…

The Contrarian’s Time to Shine

The market is such a dynamic system filled with black swans, paradoxes, and anomalies. For example, following the stock market crash of 1987 the American economy boomed, which intuitively doesn’t make sense. If stocks were really a leading indicator, as the efficient market theory implies, we should have experienced a Depression in 1987. All these theories we’ve come to accept are dead wrong, and this is why I approach markets…

Why My Pessimism is Growing

I hate to say this, but I am probably going to be a lot more pessimistic about our economic prospects moving forward. Confidence is collapsing  as nearly half of Americans think we are headed for another Depression. Our leaders are showing they are true morons who can’t come to an intelligent solution to this debt crisis. Gold is rising and those who screamed for years that gold was a crowded…

More Confirmation of Economic Weakness

We received more sobering economic news today with the weaker than expected  jobs report. The unemployment rate of 9.2% is the highest of the year, which is news to me since our economy “officially” came out of recession 2 years ago. Employment in government fell for the 8th straight month, which is all part of the inevitable collapse of the public sector. This is bad news for our economy since…

Why Stocks Won’t Crash

It seemed like only a week ago when permabears were predicting the appearance of a new bear market that would take out the lows of 2009. The variables all seemed to be there: Greek debt crisis, inflation from higher commodity prices, and worsening economic data in the U.S. Most economic observers believe these kind of variables lead to lower stock prices. As you can clearly see, this is not the…