Real Estate

Learning How to Invest

I want to take a step back from talking about current events because the short-term trends likely won’t affect the long-term trends in a major way. Debt isn’t disappearing and our politicians haven’t suddenly grown brains. I don’t want to get bogged down in useless day-to-day analysis along the lines of  “unemployment claims went down by 0.1% so the American economy is back and stocks will automatically rise in the…

Perceiving the Major Shifts

The world is changing abruptly before our eyes, yet very few “professionals” see what’s coming. In my opinion, this is because most financial types are equipped to understand a world that fits a very narrow framework. The world they can analyze and understand conforms to a certain paradigm; they aren’t trained to see the true paradigm shifts. As long as the world resembles what they learned in Finance 101,  they …

State Debt Crisis Approaching

I have warned that a debt crisis of a magnitude we have never experienced before is approaching. States and municipalities are going bankrupt along with the Federal government. Economists foolishly applaud sub-3% growth in GDP when it took a $1 trillion budget deficit to produce. There is some serious misunderstanding of the fundamentals of our economy right now, and this is going to create some crazy volatility. States are in horrible shape;…

Thinking Through the Bond Bubble

Most people who read this blog will agree that we live in a seminal time in history. Some people may be doubting the probability of a major debt crisis based on improving economic data, but I am still quite sure it is coming.  I have no problem acknowledging that certain economic metrics are showing signs of improvement; this is to be expected. However, I must also provide you with some perspective here. The unemployment…

Home Prices Fall in November

We are now starting to see some cracks in the housing market, with 13 out of 20 cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index showing price declines in November on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. From Standard & Poors: “While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details.” says David…