U.S. Stocks: The Only Game in Town

There is widespread disbelief of this rally in U.S. equities, which is exposing myths about stocks. One such myth is that equities are tied strictly to economic growth. This intuitively makes sense, but the market does not care what we think should be true. Remember, equities rallied over 300% from 1932-1937 in the midst of the Great Depression. Warren Buffett understands this phenomenon, which is apparent from his Op-Ed in the New…

Gold: It Is Not Time

I was at a used bookstore  the other day perusing the business and investing section when I saw a couple of books about the next Great Depression of America. Of course I had to take a look. The arguments in these books were pretty sound, and I nodded my head often…. that is, until I realized these books were from 20 and 30 years ago! These authors (still doom and gloomers today)…

The U.S. Government Bond Bubble

What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why. Efficient Market Theory Let’s face it, markets are inefficient. The efficient market theory, manufactured from the ivory towers of academia, poses perhaps the greatest threat to the…

The Cost of Being a U.S. Citizen

I’ve written before about the record number of people choosing to renounce their citizenship. Well the cost of  renouncing your citizenship just went up over 400%. This isn’t a coincidence- the government knows about the crisis that’s coming. They are on a crazed hunt for revenue that is going to prevent a quick recovery. We are on the path to a drawn-out Japanese-style lost decade at best. For now most people have no clue what’s going on; these…

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Why Being a Full-Time Bear is Hazardous

As I scour the internet, I sense misplaced bearish sentiment and a growing chorus of people expecting a stock market crash. I don’t think a crash is likely, which puts me in an uncomfortable position. Most of my peers in the “government debt is out of control, gold is going to rally, prepare now or forever hold your peace” crowd are bearish on everything. I just don’t agree, and I haven’t agreed in years. The sad thing…

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Beware the Machines Are Here!

I’m attaching a very interesting video about advances in technology and how this destroys lower skilled jobs. This is a trend I am very bullish on, and trust me, this video is well worth the 15 minutes of your time. We are in a different era and the 10% of people that prepare themselves will reap outsized rewards. We will come out ahead because of technology, but the transition will be very painful because…

Where’s the Economic Collapse?

Those who have been expecting an economic collapse are no doubt wondering why the markets are not reacting to clear bearish news: a) the renewed engagement in Iraq, b) the Ukranian/ Russian crisis, and c) riots on the streets in St. Louis. Let’s also not forget the cell phone “kill switch” that is about to be passed in California under the veil of catching criminals who steal phones. The truth, though, is that…

The Beginning of A Stock Market Crash?

Stocks are finally correcting from all-time highs and this is bound to get the bears excited. Obama’s approval rating is at all-time lows and the scent of war is in the air. We are overdue for a recession on a cyclical basis, and this just adds fuel to the fire for bears. That being said, I suspect this rally in stocks is not being appreciated as a secular bull market for…

Gold and Precious Metals

Gold: It Is Not Time

I was at a used bookstore  the other day perusing the business and investing section when I saw a couple of books about the next Great Depression of America. Of course I had to take a look. The arguments in these books were pretty sound, and I nodded my head often…. that is, until I realized these books were from 20 and 30 years ago! These authors (still doom and gloomers today)…

Where’s the Economic Collapse?

Those who have been expecting an economic collapse are no doubt wondering why the markets are not reacting to clear bearish news: a) the renewed engagement in Iraq, b) the Ukranian/ Russian crisis, and c) riots on the streets in St. Louis. Let’s also not forget the cell phone “kill switch” that is about to be passed in California under the veil of catching criminals who steal phones. The truth, though, is that…

Ukraine

Do You Remember? Why Gold?

Gold is turning into something of a forgotten asset, and that’s fine by me. There will be a time to buy gold again, and when that time comes, there will be very few believers. That’s the way it always is before a major rally. With most things in life, you see something like a 90/10 or 80/20 rule. As it relates to gold, this means that 5% are in the “gold…

dejavu

Gold: Deja Vu All Over Again?

I live for these moments. When I start getting spam comments that indicate fear (for gold investors) and schadenfreude (for gold permabears), I know that some kind of important turning point is near. These sort of heuristics make my life easier. My roommates can attest that when gold drops in price, my reaction is to do a really quick dance, followed by an enthusiastic cheer. Then I  go back to living my life….